I realized after my last post that JHK forecasts also ranks the contests by likelihood of outcome. So I checked my rankings against their more sophisticated forecast and not surprisingly, there was a lot of similarity.
They are a little more confident than me that Biden will win Florida and (to a lesser extent) North Carolina. I make him the modest favorite in both places but they are pretty bullish on him, especially in Florida. They give him an 82.8% chance of winning there. The scars of 2000, 2016 and especially 2018 make it impossible for me to go much higher than 60%.
Their forecast also gives Biden a shot in Alaska. He is the heavy underdog there but at 10.7%, they give him odds roughly equal to picking a correct digit at random. I don't see it happening for him. LBJ in 1964 is the only Democrat to ever win Alaska. And Trump's foolish drilling policies are popular there.
Here is the chart for comparison.I had to estimate their odds for some of the congressional district races in Maine and Nebraska.
| Jurisdiction | Electoral Votes | Running Tally | JHK Chances of Biden Win |
| DC | 3 | 3 | 100 |
| Delaware | 3 | 6 | 100 |
| New York | 29 | 35 | 100 |
| California | 55 | 90 | 100 |
| Hawaii | 4 | 94 | 100 |
| Vermont | 3 | 97 | 100 |
| Massachusetts | 11 | 108 | 100 |
| Connecticut | 7 | 115 | 99.9 |
| Maryland | 10 | 125 | 100 |
| Illinois | 20 | 145 | 99.9 |
| New Jersey | 14 | 159 | 100 |
| Washington | 12 | 171 | 100 |
| Oregon | 7 | 178 | 99.6 |
| Rhode Island | 4 | 182 | 100 |
| Virginia | 13 | 195 | 97.2 |
| Colorado | 9 | 204 | 96.6 |
| New Mexico | 5 | 209 | 99.4 |
| Maine 1st CD | 1 | 210 | 100 |
| Maine | 2 | 212 | 95.5 |
| Minnesota | 10 | 222 | 93.2 |
| Nevada | 6 | 228 | 90.1 |
| New Hampshire | 4 | 232 | 88.5 |
| Michigan | 16 | 248 | 92.7 |
| Pennsylvania | 20 | 268 | 87.9 |
| Wisconsin | 10 | 278 | 82.1 |
| Arizona | 11 | 289 | 73.3 |
| Florida | 29 | 318 | 82.8 |
| North Carolina | 15 | 333 | 75.1 |
| Nebraska 2nd Cd | 1 | 334 | 63 (Estimate) |
| Iowa | 6 | 340 | 53.2 |
| Georgia | 16 | 356 | 51.9 |
| Ohio | 18 | 374 | 47.4 |
| Maine 2nd CD | 1 | 375 | 50 (Estimate) |
| Texas | 38 | 413 | 30 |
| Montana | 3 | 416 | 5.2 |
| South Carolina | 9 | 425 | 6.8 |
| Missouri | 10 | 436 | 3.7 |
| Indiana | 11 | 446 | 4.1 |
| Alaska | 3 | 449 | 10.7 |
| Mississippi | 6 | 455 | 2.8 |
| Kansas | 6 | 461 | 1.8 |
| Nebraska | 2 | 463 | 0.2 |
| Nebraska 3rd CD | 1 | 464 | 0 |
| Nebraska 1st CD | 1 | 465 | 0 |
| Tennessee | 11 | 476 | 0.1 |
| Louisiana | 8 | 484 | 1 |
| South Dakota | 3 | 487 | 0.1 |
| Utah | 6 | 493 | 0.1 |
| Alabama | 9 | 502 | 0 |
| Kentucky | 8 | 510 | 0 |
| Oklahoma | 7 | 517 | 0 |
| Arkansas | 6 | 523 | 0 |
| Idaho | 4 | 527 | 0 |
| North Dakota | 3 | 530 | 0 |
| Wyoming | 3 | 533 | 0 |
| West Virginia | 5 | 538 | 0 |
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