I. Six States On the Road To 270.
There are six truly competitive states that might decide the election: Pennsylvania, Arizona, North Carolina, Florida, Georgia, and Iowa. If Donald Trump sweeps them, he will become president. If Joe Biden wins just one of them, he will be competitive. If he wins any two of them, he is the heavy favorite.
You can play with these scenarios here: LINK. Just click on Trump or Biden's head to give them one state, and watch the balls move from side to side.
Here is the summary of where things stand. This chart shows Biden's chance of winning the election given either outcome in any of the key states. If Joe Biden wins Pennsylvania, he has a 98% chance of winning. But if Trump wins Pennsylvania, Biden has just a 31% chance of winning.
The last column shows the average number of Electoral Votes Biden will get if he happens to win that specific state.
Keep in mind that these are not completely independent variables. Success in one state correlates with success in other states. So if Biden wins a state that Trump won comfortably last time, it's a very good sign that he is doing well generally. Iowa is the smallest state in that group but if Biden wins there, it means he has improved on Hillary's 2016 result there by nine points. That implies that he is doing well in a lot of places, which is why the average EV total is so high in that last line.
II. You Guessed It-Taxonomy.
Here is a color-coded guide to all 56 races on election night, from safest for Biden (Washington, D) to safest for Trump (Nebraska's 3rd congressional district).
This noisy color scheme refers to the tiers of states that I have already created for this site. Here is a handy chart. The last column shows what Biden gets up to as he sweeps each of these tiers.
To summarize, Biden can rest easy on most of Hillary's states. But Trump is at least making an effort in New Hampshire, Minnesota and Nevada.
The Hillary Killers refer to the three states that put Trump in office last time-Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Nebraska's 2nd congressional district is also in there, but is unlikely to put Biden over the top because it's just one vote.
Beyond those states, Biden should be competitive in three Sun Belt states. Even the more conservative prognosticators, like Sabato and 270-to-Win favor Biden in Arizona. Florida and North Carolina could go either way, and the results there will probably decide if the election is perceived as being close or comfortable for Biden.
Georgia, Iowa, Ohio and Maine's 2nd congressional district are pretty much pure toss-ups. I'm sticking with my predictions that Biden will win Georgia but lose Ohio. I am less sure of Iowa. .
Beyond that we have the dream of a blue Texas and a couple other reaches that Biden only wins if the Trump campaign implodes.
I don't think he will implode. Turnout is high, but the data from FL and TX suggest that both Democrats and Republicans are showing up in big numbers. Over 75 million people have already voted in this election. I think we'll get over 150 million by the time we are done.
III. The Fun Stuff: All 56 Contests, Ranked from Best to Worst (For Biden).
Here they all, in order, with a few significant milestones listed in the last column. You can print this list out and check them off as the night goes on. But people will think you are a dork.
