With eight days to go, Joe Biden maintains a solid and substantial lead in the national polls. He leads in more than enough states to be elected president and I am more confident than ever that this will be the final result. Trump needs something to change the election, and it has not happened yet.
But tonight I will focus on the unlikely. I will write about what a Trump victory would require and look like.
More Americans have voted in the 2020 presidential election than voted in the 1956 presidential election. High turnout votes usually favor the Democrats and they almost always favor the candidate leading opinion polls. (The larger the vote total, the more representative the polls are.)
I. Three Ways Trump Can Win.
a. Another Systemic Polling Error.
Trump's victory caught most pollsters off guard last time because they didn't properly appreciate that the white electorate had fragmented into two halves-educated people that hated Trump and voters with less formal education, who found him appealing. (For demographic purposes the dividing line seems to be a 4 year degree, so maybe in 2021 we should get together and form a United Caucasian College Fund. Pretty sure we could dupe a lot of Fox News Viewers into writing checks for that one.)
For Trump to win a second time, he might need another systemic polling error. Obviously, no one can predict what that would be. It is possible that turnout will be so high that it distorts the polling picture. Maybe Trump will over perform with Black voters or young voters. Maybe senior citizens will excuse his attacks against his apparent indifference to how many old people are dying from COVID. Maybe they will also excuse his repeated insinuations that Joe Biden has dementia or lacks the physical energy to run a vigorous campaign.
If this is the case, we'll probably know early. I think Ohio might be the place to watch. The vote swung from Obama by three in 2012 to Trump by eight in 2016. The polls this time suggest a dead heat. If he wins there early, it could be a sign that his coalition turned out in big numbers again. Biden doesn't need to win Ohio but he will want to hear the words "Too close to call" at some point after the polls close there next Tuesday.
b. Scraping Together 270.
Hillary Clinton won 232 electoral votes last time. Biden leads in all of her states, mostly by substantial margins. If the polls are accurate there, he will hold on to all of those states. He also looks very strong in Michigan and Wisconsin. If he wins those states, then Biden has 259 votes.
Trump is the heavy or betting favorite in states worth 125 electoral votes. If the election is to be close, he will also win TX (38) and OH (18). Let's also give him IA (6) and Maine's 2nd District (1).
That puts us at Biden 259, Trump 188. The remaining 91 electoral votes come from five states that Trump carried last time-FL (29), PA (20), GA (16), NC (15) and AZ (11) Biden just needs one of those states. Trump would have to sweep them.
I think that's a tall order. Pennsylvania and Arizona are likely to go for Biden. But a sweep is possible, and it's probably Trump's best chance of winning.
c. Just One Upset.
As of tonight 538.com says that in 24% of its simulations, Trump wins at least one Clinton state. Some of those scenarios would reflect the kind of systemic polling error we already discussed. But in a really close race, one legitimate upset could put Trump over the top.
Let's back up to Biden being at 259. Instead of Trump sweeping the Big Five, he only wins four.
1. If Biden wins only AZ, Biden is at exactly 270. Trump just needs to win any Clinton state-NH, NV, MN or Maine. Even Nebraska's 2nd district, where Biden currently polls quite well, would be enough to put Trump in the White House again..
2. If Biden wins NC, he is at 274 electoral votes. Trump would need to win one state, but if that state is NH, he would also need NE-2nd.
3. If Biden wins GA, he is at 275 EV. Trump needs NV or MN.
4. If Biden wins PA, he is at 279 EV. Trump would need to win MN or NV plus NH.
5. If Biden wins FL, he is at 288 EV. Trump would need to sweep MN, NV and NH.
Each of these scenarios is unlikely and most of them can be mooted if Biden wins Iowa. Polls look good for Biden in Iowa this week but the demographics are tough for him. The state is VERY white.
II. Happier Thoughts.
The simple truth is that all of the above scenarios are unlikely. Biden's lead is stable and nothing the Trump team has trotted out to attack him has worked. Most of the states that we look at stand in just about the same place as last week, with on exception...
Florida. The polling in Florida continues to suggest a close race. Five Thirty Eight has Biden winning 66% of the time, by an average of two points. JHK has him winning 75% of the time, by an average of three and a half points. Biden leads the Real Clear Politics average by 1.8 points.
But this week, MASSIVE numbers of voters voted early. And all kinds of political prognisticators have been diving the meaning of the totals of ballots cast by registered Democrats, Republicans and unaffiliated voters. The mail voted favored the Democrats by wide margins. The in-person vote went the the Republicans by a more narrow margin. Polls suggest that the independents have been favoring Biden, but that might change on election day.
For what it's worth, the betting markets moved towards Trump as the week progressed. I still favor Biden, but it will be close.
Most of the other states have been stable this week.
Biden will need to win one more Trump state to win office. He is currently favored in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Arizona and Florida.
There has been exc
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