Joe Biden is winning by ten points. Some polls say nine, some say 12. It averages out to right about ten. There are three weeks and one day to go until the election. In the history of modern polling, the biggest swing during the last three weeks was seven points, which happened in 1980 and again in 1992. Both of those large swings related to the polling of a major third party candidate.
At this point in 1980 Ronald Reagan led incumbent Jimmy Carter by just three points. Then he performed well in his only debate with President Carter. Support for John Anderson, a moderate Republican member of congress collapsed after the debate and Reagan won by ten.
At this point in 1992, Bill Clinton led incumbent president George H.W. Bush by about 12 points. On election night, he won handily. But Ross Perot far exceeded expectations, taking 19 percent of the vote. Clinton won the popular vote by just five points, but cruised in the Electoral College, 370 to 168.
No such cavalry is coming for Donald Trump. Joe Biden is now getting over 50 percent in most national polls. He has polled as high as 55 percent in an ABC/Washington Post poll a few days ago. Third party candidates are lucky to break one percent each or three percent in the aggregate. They will probably get some of the undecided voters, but not enough to dramatically move the popular vote.
Donald Trump is unpopular, incompetent and corrupt. He continues to mismanage a raging pandemic and refuses to make it better by unambiguously encouraging people to wear a mask. Even three nights in a hospital could not convince him to take this seriously.
Polls, forecasts and the betting markets moved toward Biden after the first debate and after the Vice-presidential debate. The second debate has been cancelled and the third debate is in doubt. Ten million people have already voted and there are lots of indications that while the Biden campaign is flush with cash, the Trump team is taking down ads in what should have been swing states. A week from now we might know that Trump's . The election is not over but we are in the eight inning, he is down by several runs and the lengthening shadows will only make it harder for him to hit.
Still, ten or 12 percent is not zero. Let's look at where things stand and where they might move in the coming weeks. We do things in tiers on this web site, so I have created a handy color-coded guide to understand how the race might move. We'll start with the worst scenarios and move on to happier times.
Note: All prices/margins are for Biden/Democrat.
I. The Taxonomy Down the Stretch.
A. The Nightmare scenario: Biden Plays Defense.
It used to be an axiom of presidential politics that the incumbent could lose close or lose big, but they only won big. In the 20th century only Woodrow Wilson was re-elected in a closer election than his first. George Bush won two very narrow victories and Barack Obama won fewer electoral votes (332) in 2012 than he did in 2008 (365). And it is safe to rule out a Trump landslide. Nate Silver still gives him a 13 percent chance of winning but only about a five percent chance of winning all of his 2016 states and adding more.
The polls and the markets agree that Biden doesn't have much to worry about in the states that Hillary Clinton won last time. But if things shift toward Trump for some godforsaken reason, he could try to win New Hampshire, Minnesota or Nevada.
B. The Tight Scenario: The Rust Belt Is Close.
We all remember how angry we were at Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in 2016. If the election was going to be close this time, this is where the most intense campaigning was going to happen. And no one will relax until these states are called for Biden on November 3rd but right now it looks like he will win all of them. And that would be enough for Biden to win the election with 279 electoral votes or 280 if he also adds Nebraska's second congressional district.
C. The Good Scenario: Sun Belt States.
The Rust Belt is likely to be the tipping point for the election outcome but the sun belt might decide whether it was a close election or a comfortable one. I am personally most confident in flipping Arizona, but the data suggests that Florida will be a better state for Biden. And if he's cruising there, he probably adds North Carolina too.
This gets Biden up to 335. If I had to place a bet today, this is where I think the election ends up.
D. The Great Scenario: The Map Expands.
Ohio and Iowa were the Obama states that swung towards Trump by such a large margin that they were not competitive by the end. I still favor Trump in both of them, but the polls do suggest they will be close. At the moment, Nate thinks Biden will win Ohio by a half point and lose Iowa by less than a point.
Biden's best chance of carrying a state that Obama never won is Georgia. Nate Silver rates it a toss-up with Trump winning 54% of the time in his simulations.
These three states will determine if the election is perceived as close or not. If Biden sweeps them, some will call it a landslide. If Iowa and Ohio return to the fold, Biden will have recreated the Obama coalition, save Mike Pence's Indiana. Replacing it with Indiana would be quite the feat.
E. The Dream Scenario: A Blue Texas
I still have a hard time believing it, but Texas is in play. Nate favors Trump by about three points. He gives Biden a 31% chance of winning-a higher number than he gave Trump winning the White House last time. There is also a semi-competitive senate race and Biden is spending money there.
F. The Blow Out Scenario.
There is a huge gap between Texas and the next most competitive state. The next state up for Biden in 538's forecast is South Carolina. But Biden only has a 16% chance of winning there. Betting markets and the JHK forecast give it very similar numbers. I doubt this will happen, but we'll keep an eye on it for now.
Alaska has comparable numbers, but it is historically much tougher to poll than the lower 48.
My choice for a dark horse continues to be Montana. Nate only gives Biden an 11% chance there but I have this hunch. (Full disclosure-the hunch is that MT will be close, not that Biden will win.)
II. The Forecasts.
1. FiveThirtyEight. Biden is at 87 percent, up from 81 percent a week ago. Moreover, Nate is on Twitter explaining that his forecast assumes the race will tighten but the day to day events on the trail are undermining that assumption. Put differently, Trump is blowing his escape routes, one after another. This week he pissed off Dr. Fauci and tonight he went back on the campaign trail to host a crowded rally despite still being positive for COVID-19.
2. The Economist. The most aggressive forecast in the field inches up again-moving Biden up to 91% from 90% a week ago. No states moved this week, so he is still with me in forecasting a 334-204 result.
3. Sabato Crystal Ball. Biden 290, Trump 248. This week he moved Arizona from toss-up to lean Biden. His forecast is always cautious and he still has five states as toss-ups.
4. 270toWin. Biden 290, Trump 248. Moves Arizona and NE-2 from toss-up to lean Biden.
5. JHK Forecasts. Biden 87.7%, up from 83.9% They also have Biden slightly favored in Iowa, Georgia and Ohio. If he were to sweep those states, the final tally would be Biden 375, Trump 164. But Biden is not more than a 55% chance to win in any of the those three states, so it might be closer than that.
6. Plural Vote. Biden 74% of winning, Biden 323, Trump 135. They have Trump slightly favored in Arizona.) I'm starting to think he gives too much weight to internet search data, but maybe he is on to something.
7. Betting Markets. Predictit.com gives Biden 61.1%, up slightly from last week's 61.5%. The other markets, which do not cap the amount you can bet on a race favor Biden by roughly two to one. I expect that number to stay stable for the next week or so, but to shift in the last two weeks as Trump runs out of time to close the gap.
8. SpiderStumbled.
I leave Biden where I had him last week-91%. The only change I made in specific contests is to move Maine-2nd from Trump to Biden. That puts my best guess at 335 to 203.
For these last few weeks, I will also put in a guess at where the popular vote lands, so here we go, my best guess:
Biden 52.55%
Trump 44.85%
Jorgenson (Libertarian) 1.75%
Hawkins (Green Party) 0.65%
Others: 0.1%
Looking at all of the date-polls, forecasts, betting markets, there is simply no reason to doubt that Joe Biden is on a path to 270 and beyond. Just try to keep calm for the 22 short days between now and then.
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