I write to record my recent realization that it is likely that Donald Trump will be impeached by the House of Representatives. I believed that the Mueller investigation resulted in enough evidence to warrant an impeachment inquiry, but the House leadership was reluctant to open one. They were probably content to just fight him in an election next november. But then Trump did himself in.
Just one day after Robert Mueller testified before congress, Donald Trump called the president of Ukraine and pressured him to open an investigation of Joe Biden's son. And when a whistle-blower came forward, Donald Trump acted like it was perfectly normal for a president to use his office to get dirt on a political opponent.
The dam broke tonight, as evidence by two extraordinary pieces in the Washington Post.
1. At 9:00 PM Eastern, the posted an Op-Ed by seven freshman Democratic Represenatives. (Reps. Gil Cisneros of California, Jason Crow of Colorado, Chrissy Houlahan of Pennsylvania, Elaine Luria of Virginia, Mikie Sherrill of New Jersey, Elissa Slotkin of Michigan and Abigail Spanberger of Virginia.) All seven are veterans of the armed forces or America's intelligence services. None of them have been controversial during their eigh months in office. They wrote to say that if the allegationw are true, that Donald Trump must be removed from office.
You can read that here: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/09/24/seven-freshman-democrats-these-allegations-are-threat-all-we-have-sworn-protect/?outputType=amp
2. At 10: 40 Eastern, three Washington Post reporters broke new details on the Ukranian scandal. They report that President Trump ordered $400 of military aid to Ukraine to be withheld just days before his conversation with Ukraine's president.
You can read that here: https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/trump-ordered-hold-on-military-aid-days-before-calling-ukrainian-president-officials-say/2019/09/23/df93a6ca-de38-11e9-8dc8-498eabc129a0_story.html?fbclid=IwAR148xEQ_O-SRw9Tjuz101x5XXEEzOzCVwaqPodbMjANnroAeQIY-JPKjvM
This is naked corruption. If the allegations are proven, he must be removed from office. The House probably still did not want to go down this road, but he has given them no choice.
It's now just after midnight on the east coast. I think the next few days will be massive news days. We will probably learn more about the whistle blower complaint. I expect the house to move to officially open an inquiry and for events to unfold quickly.
Three hours ago I would have said that Trump was going to avoid an impeachment process. I no longer believe that. I think hearings will be held, articles drafted and if I had to be right now, I would say that a majority of the house will vote to impeach him.
After that, things move to the senate. There is almost no indication that any Republicans are ready to vote to convict him, although Mitt Romney has made enough half-hearted statements of concern to draw the president's ire.
Donald Trump got away with solicitiing foreign interference in his first presidential election. Just one day after Robert Mueller testified to the contents of his report, Donald Trump began asking for that interference from a different country. But this time he was president. And this time he got caught. It now appears that there will be a meaningful attempt to get justice for this High Crime and Misdemeanor.
Monday, September 23, 2019
Thursday, September 12, 2019
Third Democratic Debate Grades
The nine most serious candidates for the Democratic nomination were finally on the stage tonight. So was Andrew Yang. Here are my thoughts on how they all did. I give each candidate separate tactical and strategic grades. I think it's construct to evaluate how well they performed tonight in the immediate sense but more importantly whether or not that performance will actually improve their chance to be the nominee.
1. Elizabeth Warren Tactical: A+ Strategic: A.
Warren is probably the smartest person in this field. And tonight she was definitely the best prepared. She knew that she would get plenty of screen time, so she didn't fight for more. She seemed to know that most of the flak would be directed at Joe Biden. She also knows that most Democratic primary voters do not like when a candidate goes hard at another Democrat. So Warren answered her questions and she answered them well. But she didn't go for cheap applause lines and she didn't offend anyone. This is exactly how a front-runner should perform.
2. Pete Buttigieg Tactical: A, Strategic: A
He is both young and intelligent. He obviously has the temperament for this job and a pretty good feeling for where both the Democratic base and the general election persuadable voters are, politically. He is still a long shot to be the nominee because his resume is too short and I don't think the left wing will embrace him. But he did great tonight.
3. Cory Booker: Tactical A, Strategic: A-
I do not like Senator Booker. I think he is a phony. But he was great tonight. He was charming and witty without seeming too rehearsed. I do no think he will shoot up in the polls, but he helped himself as much as possible tonight.
4. Joe Biden Tactical: A-, Strategic: A-
Biden was better prepared tonight and he excelled in the first half of the debate. His team obviously told him to avoid using names and to not get bogged down in details. But his presence was pretty good and he conveyed his message well. Of course in the last 45 minutes or so he had a few of his usual slips. (He even talked about 'record players' during a question about education reform.) But I don't think he said anything that will gain traction in the media so he probably still stays at the front of this field for now.
5. Amy Klobuchar Tactical: A-, Strategic: B+
Her substance was very good. Like Buttigieg, she has views that are sensible and popular generally. But she's not charismatic on television and I would be surprised if she gets much of a bump out of tonight's performance. That's too bad because she would make an excellent president and is the perfect antidote to Trumpism.
6. Kamala Harris Tactical B+, Strategic: B+
She was comfortable and relaxed. I am inclined to like her, so that played well with me. Her plan was obviously to make the night about bashing Trump and she got a couple good lines off, but I don't think that made her stand out particularly. She does deserve credit for improving on the subject of criminal justice reform.
7. Beto O'Rourke Tactical: B+, Strategic: B
Beto is handsome and he can articulate a talking point well. Perhaps the most telling moments tonight was that he was complimented so frequently by other candidates on the stage. They know he is popular in Texas. They also know he's not much of a threat to become the nominee. But he did not cost himself any votes tonight.
8. Bernie Sanders Tactical: C+, Strategic: C
I have a friend who saw Flock of Seagulls in Concert about 20 years ago. They played "I Run"...twice. Because what the hell else do you want to hear Flock of Seagulls play? Bernie too only has one hit and he plays it as often as the crowd will let him. But his team failed him by not giving him cough drops before the debate. He is mailing it in now.
9. Julian Castro Tactical: C, Strategic: D
He sucked. And he took a shot at Biden's age. That probably cost him an ambassadorship.
10. Andrew Yang Tactical: D, Strategic: Not Applicable.
This clown is not running to be president. He is running to be a celebrity. And he actually started the night by offering a bribe to voters. That gimmick will probably get him some email addresses and exactly 10 votes. But he really showed his hand tonight. He is not running to be president. He is not running to win a cabinet spot or to be the ambassador to Aruba. He is running to be some combination of Joe Rogan and Tony Robbins. Fuck him.
Sunday, September 1, 2019
The Field Begins To Whittle (The 2020 Democratic Field, Take Seven)
Labor Day is traditionally when voters supposedly start paying attention to a presidential election. So we are only one year away from normal people starting to really thinkg about this process. In the meantime, we political nerds soldier on.
I last updated the field four weeks ago. Since then we have had a few drop outs. Three dropped out before officially missing the cut and Senator Gillibrand dropped out as soon as she officially missed the cut. (Good for her. Being a senator from New York is a pretty sweet gig. There's not need to waste the next 4 months in Iowa and New Hampshire.)
I. The Power Rankings, Take Seven.
These are just my preferences, without regard to the chances they will win the nomination. There is not a lot of movement this time, except for the spaces created by former candidates, most notably Jay Inslee who had shot up from 13th to 4th in my last ranking. The removal of the three other former candidates, Hickenlooper (13), Gillibrand (14) and Moulton (16) caused less disruption.
1. Amy Klobuchar
2. Kamala Harris
3. Elizabeth Warren
4 Beto O'Rourke (Up from 6) He seems more relevant after his response to the El Paso shooting and just yesterday there was another horrific shooting in West Texas. I'm not counting him out yet.
I last updated the field four weeks ago. Since then we have had a few drop outs. Three dropped out before officially missing the cut and Senator Gillibrand dropped out as soon as she officially missed the cut. (Good for her. Being a senator from New York is a pretty sweet gig. There's not need to waste the next 4 months in Iowa and New Hampshire.)
I. The Power Rankings, Take Seven.
These are just my preferences, without regard to the chances they will win the nomination. There is not a lot of movement this time, except for the spaces created by former candidates, most notably Jay Inslee who had shot up from 13th to 4th in my last ranking. The removal of the three other former candidates, Hickenlooper (13), Gillibrand (14) and Moulton (16) caused less disruption.
1. Amy Klobuchar
2. Kamala Harris
3. Elizabeth Warren
4 Beto O'Rourke (Up from 6) He seems more relevant after his response to the El Paso shooting and just yesterday there was another horrific shooting in West Texas. I'm not counting him out yet.
5. Julian Castro (Down from 4) He seems to be getting slithgly desperate. This week he put forth a proposal to make it illegal for animal shelters to euthanize unadopted pets. There may ben argument for tha ton the merits, but it is NOT an issue for the federal government to decide. It struck me as an attempt to hit a very specific fundraising niche. (Cat ladys.)
6. Michael Bennett (Up from 7)
7. Steve Bullock (8)
8. Pete Buttigieg (9)
9. Joe Biden (10)
10. John Delaney (11)
7. Steve Bullock (8)
8. Pete Buttigieg (9)
9. Joe Biden (10)
10. John Delaney (11)
11. Corey Booker (12)
12. Tim Ryan
13. Joe Sestak (Up from 17)
14. Bernie Sanders (18)
15. Wayne Messam (20)
12. Tim Ryan
13. Joe Sestak (Up from 17)
14. Bernie Sanders (18)
15. Wayne Messam (20)
16. Andrew Yang (19) I have to explain something here. Yang moved "up" 3 spots because 4 candidates dropped out. But I'm moving him behind Wayne Messam for a very specific reason. I know nothing about Wayne Messam. He is the mayor of a some mid-size Florida city that I can't even remember the name of. He's youngish and African-American. I don't know if he's a good mayor or a bad mayor. I don't know his religion or his priorities or his favorite band. I think it's slightly absurd that he's running for President of the United States but I also have to assume that he is more qualified and competent for the job than a name chosen at random from the phone book.
To be ranked below Messam, I have to think you would be worse than a random name chosen from a phone book. Last month I gave Yang the benefit of the doubt that he was. I have now sseen enough of him to conclude that he is not. His ideas are stupid and I believe he is running to become a fringe public intellectual akin to Ron Paul. He is going to wind up building a small political movement that disrupts things for no substantive purpose. Just like Ron Paul.
17. Tom Steyer (Unranked) I think I forgot about him last time. I'm glad he didn't qualify for the debate because he's a rich asshole who should have better ways to waste his money than to juice the ad revenues of Iowa TV chanels and radio stations. Build a hospital for Christ's sake.
18. Bill de Blasio (21)
To be ranked below Messam, I have to think you would be worse than a random name chosen from a phone book. Last month I gave Yang the benefit of the doubt that he was. I have now sseen enough of him to conclude that he is not. His ideas are stupid and I believe he is running to become a fringe public intellectual akin to Ron Paul. He is going to wind up building a small political movement that disrupts things for no substantive purpose. Just like Ron Paul.
17. Tom Steyer (Unranked) I think I forgot about him last time. I'm glad he didn't qualify for the debate because he's a rich asshole who should have better ways to waste his money than to juice the ad revenues of Iowa TV chanels and radio stations. Build a hospital for Christ's sake.
18. Bill de Blasio (21)
19. Tulsi Gabbard (22)
20. Marianne Williamson (23)
II. The Horse Race, Take Seven.
A. The Top Tier (Front Runners).
1. Joe Biden
2. Elizabeth Warren
3. Bernie Sanders (Up from 3)
4. Kamala Harris (Down from 3)
Harris' slip in the polls has been pretty consistent over the past month. Her performance in the 2nd debate was poorly received and pretty much erased the bounce that she got from a strong performance in the first. I still think Bernie is unlikely to be the nominee but he should do well in the first 2 states and I think it will be tough for Harris to withstand finishing out of the money in both Iowa and New Hampshire, especially if Buttigieg or O'Rourke finishes ahead of her in either place. She is still my preference among the top 4 candidates, but she can't be please with the trajectory of her candidacy.
B. Tier Two (Those Guys).
5. Pete Buttigieg
6. Beto O'Rourke (Up from 6)
7. Cory Booker (Down form 7)
8. Julian Castro
I slid Mayor Pete down to the second tier because his support has been on a plateau for months. He is an appealing guy and has the right temperament to be President some day. But I don't think people are going to flock to his candidacy in a big way. He's kind of stuck in 5th place, unless Kamala or Bernie tank.
He also fits a little better with the other three candidates in this tier. They are all moderate. They each have some strengths and some obvious weaknesses. Three of them have been mayors. If a Democrat wins, all of them will be considered for important jobs. And there is a least a chance that any one of them might find a cause or have a moment that shoots them up into contention. It hasn't happened yet, but there is hope.
C. Tier Three (The Grown Ups).
9. Amy Klobuchar
10. Michael Bennet (12)
11. Steve Bullock (14)
12. John Delaney (13)
These candidates are more experienced than the "Those Guys" Bunch but a lot less charismatic and therefore less likely to be the nominee. If God gave me a magic wand and said I could pick which tier the next president would come from, I would choose this bunch. But I am more moderate than the typical primary voter and less interested in how dynamic someone seems on television. I wish this group well, and I think 2 or 3 of them might be able to
D. Tier Four (Long Shots)
13. Andrew Yang (21) He's had an undeniable bump in the polls-all the way to 2 or 3 percent.
14. Tulsi Gabbard (19)
15. Tim Ryan I think he's running to raise his profile in order to one day run for Governor or maybe for speaker of the House.
16. Joe Sestak (18)
17. Tom Steyer
18. Bill de Blasio (17) The complete rejection of this guy by the national party has warmed my heart.
E. Fifth Tier (Trainwrecks)
19. Wayne Mesam (22) I hope he sticks around if only because he now serves a specific purpose in my power rankings. I wonder if his wife teases him by calling him "President-Elect" when he forgets to take out the trash.
20. Marianne Williamson (23) Fuck her.
20. Marianne Williamson (23)
II. The Horse Race, Take Seven.
A. The Top Tier (Front Runners).
1. Joe Biden
2. Elizabeth Warren
3. Bernie Sanders (Up from 3)
4. Kamala Harris (Down from 3)
Harris' slip in the polls has been pretty consistent over the past month. Her performance in the 2nd debate was poorly received and pretty much erased the bounce that she got from a strong performance in the first. I still think Bernie is unlikely to be the nominee but he should do well in the first 2 states and I think it will be tough for Harris to withstand finishing out of the money in both Iowa and New Hampshire, especially if Buttigieg or O'Rourke finishes ahead of her in either place. She is still my preference among the top 4 candidates, but she can't be please with the trajectory of her candidacy.
B. Tier Two (Those Guys).
5. Pete Buttigieg
6. Beto O'Rourke (Up from 6)
7. Cory Booker (Down form 7)
8. Julian Castro
I slid Mayor Pete down to the second tier because his support has been on a plateau for months. He is an appealing guy and has the right temperament to be President some day. But I don't think people are going to flock to his candidacy in a big way. He's kind of stuck in 5th place, unless Kamala or Bernie tank.
He also fits a little better with the other three candidates in this tier. They are all moderate. They each have some strengths and some obvious weaknesses. Three of them have been mayors. If a Democrat wins, all of them will be considered for important jobs. And there is a least a chance that any one of them might find a cause or have a moment that shoots them up into contention. It hasn't happened yet, but there is hope.
C. Tier Three (The Grown Ups).
9. Amy Klobuchar
10. Michael Bennet (12)
11. Steve Bullock (14)
12. John Delaney (13)
These candidates are more experienced than the "Those Guys" Bunch but a lot less charismatic and therefore less likely to be the nominee. If God gave me a magic wand and said I could pick which tier the next president would come from, I would choose this bunch. But I am more moderate than the typical primary voter and less interested in how dynamic someone seems on television. I wish this group well, and I think 2 or 3 of them might be able to
D. Tier Four (Long Shots)
13. Andrew Yang (21) He's had an undeniable bump in the polls-all the way to 2 or 3 percent.
14. Tulsi Gabbard (19)
15. Tim Ryan I think he's running to raise his profile in order to one day run for Governor or maybe for speaker of the House.
16. Joe Sestak (18)
17. Tom Steyer
18. Bill de Blasio (17) The complete rejection of this guy by the national party has warmed my heart.
E. Fifth Tier (Trainwrecks)
19. Wayne Mesam (22) I hope he sticks around if only because he now serves a specific purpose in my power rankings. I wonder if his wife teases him by calling him "President-Elect" when he forgets to take out the trash.
20. Marianne Williamson (23) Fuck her.
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