Final 2022 Midterm Predictions of Extremely Low Confidence

If you play this game, you have to go on the record. I do so in the Year of Our Lord 2022 with very little confidence. But making your best guess is important, especially if you remember to remain humble when that guess turns out correct.  (More or less.)

 1. The House Will Go Republican but By a Small Majority.

Current House: 221D, 214R.

Prediction:  228R, 207D.  (Republicans gain 14 seats.)

It will be hard for the incumbent party to hold on to a razor-thin majority.  A lot has to go right for the Democrats.  But I also do not see them getting blown out.  The Republican won almost every close race last time and while they probably benefitted modestly from reapportionment, I do not think they were able to add many seats from redistricting.

There also has been a modest uptick for the Democrats in tracking polls over the last few days. I think that momentum will keep a few close seats blue.

There are not very many compelling individual races in the House this year. Some of the worst Republicans are leaving this year because of retirement (Goehmert) or primary loss (Cawthorn).  Most of the other really bad ones (Greene, Gaetz) are in very safe seats. Lauren Boebert had a couple close polls but she too is a heavy favorite.

1. If you want a sign of how things might go for the rest of the country, Florida (13th) and Virginia (2nd) are two races to watch.  Both are currently held by Democrats but both have shifted right after redistricting. If the Dems win both of these races, it's a good sign for them. 

 2. Alaska at-large will be talked about a lot, especially if the Democratic incumbent clears 50% on the first round. (I think she will-just barely.) 

3. Every vote matters. The GOP caucus contains no shortage of people more interested in their brand then in governance. Kevin McCarthy won't be able to get much done if he's trying to ride herd over a 221 seat house. But as his caucus grows, then he can get away with letting them do more stupid things like impeaching Joe Biden to keep Donald Trump happy.  If he has 230 seats, they can probably scratch together 218 who are dumb enough to play that game. If he only has 221 or 222, then he probably can't do that or force a government shutdown that would tank America's credit rating. 

2. Dems Will Keep the Senate-Barely.

Current Senate: 50 (+1 VP) D, 50 R.

Prediction: 50D, 49R, with GA going to a runoff.

A. This Probably Comes Down to 4 Races. 

I don't think any of these races have a clear favorite but I'll list them in order of confidence.

1.Arizona: Dems win. Their incumbent is popular and normal and those people usually win. Let's call it Kelly 51, Masters47.

2. Georgia goes to a runoff.  Their incumbent is normal and relatively popular but it's a tough environment for Democrats in a state that is still 50-50.  The Republicans nominated a moron but that is not deterring the base at all.  On election night, Walker will have a small lead but come up short of 50.  Let's call it Walker 49, Warnock 48. 

Pennsylvania & Nevada are truly too close to call. I can see any combination happening here-2R, 2D, 1 of each with either party winning either race. But if I scrutinize the numbers, the polling history, the momentum and the candidate quality, this is where I land. (I think.)

3. Nevada: Cortez Masto 50, Laxalt 49

4. Pennsylvania Fetterman 49.5, Oz 49.1.

B. The Second Tier Races. 

There is a second tier of races here where one party is clearly favored but the other candidate has a reasonable chance of winning. (Reasonable chance defined as the odds of a #9 batter in an average baseball lineup getting a hit in any given at bat against an average pitcher.  (Something close to 20%.)

5. Wisconsin   Ron Johnson is odious. He is dishonest and shitty in several ways. But this state is evenly divided and the environment tilts to the right slightly. So I think that will be enough for Johnson to hold on. 

Johnson (R) 50.4, Barnes 48.6. Chance of an upset: 25%.

6.  Ohio.  J.D. Vance is a weak candidate. Tim Ryan is a pretty strong one but this is a red state and I think Vance will make it through.

Vance 51.4, Ryan 48.6.  Chance of an upset: 23%.

7.  North Carolina.  This race has barely been on my radar. Both candidates seem inoffensive, which I think favors the Republican in this environment.

Budd 51, Beasley 47. Chance of an upset: 21%.

8. New Hampshire.  Okay, this is the one to watch if you are a Republican.  I think their candidate should lose but if he wins or keeps it very close, that is a sign that the GOP is headed for a good night.

Hassan 51.1, Bolduc 47.5 Chance of an upset: 18%. 

C. Squint and You Can See an Upset.

Polls are sometimes wrong. In another universe, the Dems might be competing in Florida or Iowa. In the world of Trafalgar polling, the Republicans are competing in Washington and Colorado.  But I really don't think any of these races will shock anyone. 

What to Watch: 

1. Democrats probably need to win three of the Big Four Races. 

2. If the Dems  pull an upset in Ohio, Wisconsin or North Carolina, then they can survive with a split of the Big Four.  

3. If the Republicans win New Hampshire, they are probably on the way to a big night in both houses.

3. Governor Races: Treading Water, But Lookin at the Margin.

1. The Big States will stay in their lane.  The incumbent or incumbent party will win in all seven of the biggest states-CA, TX, FL, NY, IL, PA and OH. Those polls showing Hochul in a tight race a week or two ago will be fodder for jokes.

2.  Democrats gain Maryland and Massachusetts easily. They gain OK narrowly. They hold OR & WI very narrowly.

3. Republicans gain Kansas and Nevada. They will also probably hold Arizona, which just might have dire consequences on a lot of fronts.

I am most interested in seeing how some of these races go in comparison to the same state's senate races. I think a lot of voters might want to send the message that candidates matter.  The best way to do that is to vote for a competent normie but against flashy celebrity candidates or full-on crazies. 

IV. Summary.

A lot of these races are going to be very close and turn on silly things like weather or minor nuances in voting procedures. The results of these elections will affect the nation. Worst of all, the parties will extrapolate lessons from tiny wins and losses. Push the ball in the direction your prefer for this country. You have nothing better to do tomorrow.

Race	Result	Details/Margin
House of Rep.	GOP Wins.	A net of 14 seats. GOP 228, DEM 207
Senate	Dems Hold.	A net gain of 1 on Election Night. GA in a Run Off.
AZ Senate	Dem Hold	Kelly by 4
GA-Senate	Runoff	Walker by 1 but under 50%
NV Senate	Dem Hold	Cortez Masto by 1.
PA Senate	Dem Pickup	Fetterman by 0.4 points
WI Senate	GOP Hold	Johnson by 2
Ohio Senate	GOP Hold	Vance by 3
NC Senate	GOP Hold	Budd by 4
NH Senate	Dem Hold	Hassan by 3 and a half points
Governors	Dems Gain	Democrats Gain MD, MA, & OK, lose NV & KS.
KS-Gov	GOP Pickup
NV-Gov	GOP Pickup
OK-Gov	Dem Pickup
OR-Gov	Dem Hold
WI-Gov	Dem Hold	This will be very close.

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One Week Out Official 2022 Midterm Non-Predictions

I have not written a political post in 15 months. One reason for that is that I have been generally satisfied with the Biden presidency. And my views on 2024 are pretty set-Biden and Trump will both run again. They will probably both be nominated and Biden will be favored to win the rematch.

But the midterms are now upon us and I feel obligated to make at least one post about my expectations. 

Frankly, and here's the party you are waiting for...I don't know what to expect. The strongest assumption going into a midterm is the natural historic tendency for the party in power to do poorly. With an 50/50 Senate and 221/214 House, that usually means the incumbent party will lose both houses by wide margins. But then came Dobbs.  The decision in June by the Supreme Court to overturn Roe v. Wade and allow states to make abortion a crime. Thirteen states have completely outlawed abortion and Georgia has implemented an absurd six-week cut off for abortions.

The thinking is that this decision and those laws will motivate young people and especially women to vote. Over the summer we had several special congressional elections and a statewide referendum in Kansas that confirmed this theory.

But the polls have undeniably shifted in the Republican direction over the last six weeks or so. I'm not going to ignore that fact. But I do think this is a hard year to poll. The environment is different than some recent midterms for a few reasons:

1. Biden is not very popular but he's also not viscerally hated by the opposing base in the way that Trump and Obama were.

2. Voting is different than it was even four years ago.  A lot of people are now comfortable voting early and by mail. But we're also no longer dealing with COVID in the same way we were in 2020, so I expect a lot of people are planning to vote on election day, as they did for most of their lives.

3. Dobbs should drive more women and young people to vote this time and there is at least some date in the voting registration and early voting numbers that suggest this is happening. But you never want to be relying on unreliable voters and that is where the Democrats find themselves in 2022.

4. Most of the recent polling has been done by Republican aligned pollsters. The Real Clear Politics average in particular includes a lot more Republican friendly pollsters than it should. Right now the generic hose averages for forecasters are further apart than they should be with just a week to go. 

Real Clear Politics: Republican +2.9.

FiveThrityEight.com: Republican +0.8

Split Ticket*: Democratic +0.4.

*Split Ticket does not include partisan polls.

The Polling Dilemma.

I am not a wonk. This is a hobby, at best. So let me just summarize the polling issue as I understand it, mostly from reading Tweets from actual wonks and (semi) professional election nerds. 

The non-partisan pollsters have the race as a dead heat and the Republican friendly pollsters have them winning by a few points. The explanation for this is that Republican pollsters believe their people are under-responding, so they include more of them in their poll.

The might be right. They also might be undercounting the young people and women who are motivated by Dobbs.  This morning Cygnal put out  a generic ballot poll out with an electorate that was less two percent Black.  Blacks usually make up about 12 percent of the voting. But even in this poll, the Republicans only lead by three points. 

It's also worth mentioning that the prediction markets are pretty favorable to Republican candidates in the senate. They seem to think a sweep of the major races is likely. I don't see that happening mostly because I think Kelly will win AZ and NV will be very close. But I've always referenced predictions markets in my forecasts and I want to acknowledge that I am diverging from them a bit this time out.

On to the Non-Predictions.

I am terming all of these as Non-Predictions because I have a low degree of confidence in everything I am about to write. But you can't play the election social media game without at least going on the record. So here is my best guess.

One theme that we may see is Dems doing better in traditional Red states but losing ground in blue states. I think Red State Dems will be more motivated by Dobbs than complacent ones in Illinois or New York. And if all of those ads about crime and inflation really do scare people, this could be a long night for the Democrats.  But I think something more modest is more likely.

1. The House Will Go Republican But By a Small Majority.

In a dead-even national vote, the Republicans probably take the House. They only need to flip four seats. I expect them to clear that bar. They'll probably gain between 12 and 25 seats. Just to keep in fun, I'll say they wind up picking up 16 seats nets. That makes the official prediction: GOP 230, DEM 205.

2. The Senate Will Be Determined By a Georgia Run-off. Again.

The current senate is 50 Dems and 50 Republican. Vice-President Harris provides the tie-breaker for the Dems. Control of this chamber probably comes down to four elections-PA, GA, AZ and NV. The Dems need to win three of them to keep the Senate.

I think the Dems win Arizona. Mark Kelly is just too good a guy, too centrist and likeable to lose to a nutter. But this is Arizona so it will probably be close. Let's call it 51-47.

Nevada could go either way but I think CCM is more likely to pull it out than not. Let's call it 50-49.

Pennsylvania will also be close but after the debate I am favoring Dr. Oz. This election should have been put away weeks ago and I think John Fetterman will go down in infamy if he doesn't win. He had plenty of time to announce that he needed to step aside for medical reasons. 

The limited polling information we have seen since the debate is less discouraging than I would have expected. But I still believe Oz will get over the finish line. Let's call that 49.9 to 49.2.

Georgia should not be competitive. Herschel Walker is a serial liar and he is to be blunt, quite stupid. He is unqualified by every meaning of that word. But the GOP is sticking with him the way they always do. I think he'll take first place on election day but I don't think he will quite get to 50 percent. So this will head to a run-off. Let's call it Walker 49, Warnock 48 on election night.

If my other predictions are right, that runoff will determine who controls the senate. But we should at least mention the chance of upsets elsewhere.

The GOP thinks they have a shot in NH, CO and even WA. They won't win any of those races but NH could be a close final tally.

The Dems have three states where an upset seems possible-NC, WI and OH.  NC is slowly trending blue but it doesn't seem to be in the hurry that VA was to get there. WI is an evenly divided state but I think Ron Johnson's incumbency will get him over the line. His ads attacking Barnes for Defund the Police stuff have also been pretty effective. 

Ohio is probably the wildest card to me. It's redder than any of the states we've mentioned so far. But the Dems nominated their best possible candidate and the Republicans nominated somebody terrible. I think this is about a three point race. But I'll call it Vance 51, Ryan 47. 

I will mention one other race here. Iowa. Chuck Grassley is too old to be a senator. He'll be 94 when his next term ends. I think some people will vote for Admiral Franken on that basis alone. But I don't think it will be enough to win. Grassley 53, Franken 47. 

So my bottom line for election night is GOP 50, Dems 49....with one run-off to determine control of the chamber.  

3. Governor Races-Look for the Splits.

I don't expect any major upsets here. Sorry folks but Kathy Hochul is not losing to Lee Zeldin. Get that thought out of your head head. Oregon and Oklahoma are both close, interesting races because the political alignments are unconventional. Oregon has essentially 2 Democrats on the ballot running against Nike's hand-picked Republican opponent. The Democratic Party of Oklahoma also did something smart in nominating a former Republican to run against an unpopular incumbent.

But the results in most governor races will be predictable. The really interesting part will be the margin of victory by comparison to the senate races in the same state.  If candidate quality matters, we're going to see some 10-15 point spreads between these races on election night.  I think the PA-Gov nominee will outperform John Fetterman by a lot. I think the same will happen for the Republican Governors of Ohio and Georgia.  

The most depressing race will be Arizona. The Democrat (Katie Hobbs) declined to debate the Republican nominee (Kari Lake) because Lake is "too extreme." And extreme she is. But a refusal to debate just looks week. Lake is a former newscaster and very polished on TV. Hobbs should have debate her early-late September of the first week of October, taken the polling hit and then beat up Lake for the last month for being a crazy person. Instead, Lake is probably going to win by 3 or 4 points and she will instantly become a serious contender to be Trump's running mate in 2024.  (She is, by the way, the only woman that I think Trump would consider on his ticket.)

Just to go on the record-the Dems will add MA, MD and OK. Republicans will probably add Kansas and Nevada. But again, none of these are "predictions." Because nobody knows what is happening a week from tonight. 

IV. Summary.

So there you have it. The House GOP gains sixteen. The Senate remains where it is for now and the Democrats net one governor's mansion. But the biggest takeaway from this is that I have very low confidence in almost everything I have written. Maybe Dobbs will save the Democrats. Maybe those ads about crime and inflation will scare people into turning over the keys to the Republicans. 

What's really sad though is that the events of the last election and its aftermath will have so little impact on anything. Just two years ago the losing candidate refused to conceded and attempted to overturn the result by whipping his base into violence. And the impact on the average voter is negligible. The Republican Party remains viable. It will likely control at least one chamber of congress after this election. It might control both. 

And their only agenda if they do is to cause governmental chaos. So that they can nominate that same sore loser to put all though the same nightmare again.