If you play this game, you have to go on the record. I do so in the Year of Our Lord 2022 with very little confidence. But making your best guess is important, especially if you remember to remain humble when that guess turns out correct. (More or less.)
1. The House Will Go Republican but By a Small Majority.
Current House: 221D, 214R.
Prediction: 228R, 207D. (Republicans gain 14 seats.)
It will be hard for the incumbent party to hold on to a razor-thin majority. A lot has to go right for the Democrats. But I also do not see them getting blown out. The Republican won almost every close race last time and while they probably benefitted modestly from reapportionment, I do not think they were able to add many seats from redistricting.
There also has been a modest uptick for the Democrats in tracking polls over the last few days. I think that momentum will keep a few close seats blue.
There are not very many compelling individual races in the House this year. Some of the worst Republicans are leaving this year because of retirement (Goehmert) or primary loss (Cawthorn). Most of the other really bad ones (Greene, Gaetz) are in very safe seats. Lauren Boebert had a couple close polls but she too is a heavy favorite.
1. If you want a sign of how things might go for the rest of the country, Florida (13th) and Virginia (2nd) are two races to watch. Both are currently held by Democrats but both have shifted right after redistricting. If the Dems win both of these races, it's a good sign for them.
2. Alaska at-large will be talked about a lot, especially if the Democratic incumbent clears 50% on the first round. (I think she will-just barely.)
3. Every vote matters. The GOP caucus contains no shortage of people more interested in their brand then in governance. Kevin McCarthy won't be able to get much done if he's trying to ride herd over a 221 seat house. But as his caucus grows, then he can get away with letting them do more stupid things like impeaching Joe Biden to keep Donald Trump happy. If he has 230 seats, they can probably scratch together 218 who are dumb enough to play that game. If he only has 221 or 222, then he probably can't do that or force a government shutdown that would tank America's credit rating.
2. Dems Will Keep the Senate-Barely.
Current Senate: 50 (+1 VP) D, 50 R.
Prediction: 50D, 49R, with GA going to a runoff.
A. This Probably Comes Down to 4 Races.
I don't think any of these races have a clear favorite but I'll list them in order of confidence.
1.Arizona: Dems win. Their incumbent is popular and normal and those people usually win. Let's call it Kelly 51, Masters47.
2. Georgia goes to a runoff. Their incumbent is normal and relatively popular but it's a tough environment for Democrats in a state that is still 50-50. The Republicans nominated a moron but that is not deterring the base at all. On election night, Walker will have a small lead but come up short of 50. Let's call it Walker 49, Warnock 48.
Pennsylvania & Nevada are truly too close to call. I can see any combination happening here-2R, 2D, 1 of each with either party winning either race. But if I scrutinize the numbers, the polling history, the momentum and the candidate quality, this is where I land. (I think.)
3. Nevada: Cortez Masto 50, Laxalt 49
4. Pennsylvania Fetterman 49.5, Oz 49.1.
B. The Second Tier Races.
There is a second tier of races here where one party is clearly favored but the other candidate has a reasonable chance of winning. (Reasonable chance defined as the odds of a #9 batter in an average baseball lineup getting a hit in any given at bat against an average pitcher. (Something close to 20%.)
5. Wisconsin Ron Johnson is odious. He is dishonest and shitty in several ways. But this state is evenly divided and the environment tilts to the right slightly. So I think that will be enough for Johnson to hold on.
Johnson (R) 50.4, Barnes 48.6. Chance of an upset: 25%.
6. Ohio. J.D. Vance is a weak candidate. Tim Ryan is a pretty strong one but this is a red state and I think Vance will make it through.
Vance 51.4, Ryan 48.6. Chance of an upset: 23%.
7. North Carolina. This race has barely been on my radar. Both candidates seem inoffensive, which I think favors the Republican in this environment.
Budd 51, Beasley 47. Chance of an upset: 21%.
8. New Hampshire. Okay, this is the one to watch if you are a Republican. I think their candidate should lose but if he wins or keeps it very close, that is a sign that the GOP is headed for a good night.
Hassan 51.1, Bolduc 47.5 Chance of an upset: 18%.
C. Squint and You Can See an Upset.
Polls are sometimes wrong. In another universe, the Dems might be competing in Florida or Iowa. In the world of Trafalgar polling, the Republicans are competing in Washington and Colorado. But I really don't think any of these races will shock anyone.
What to Watch:
1. Democrats probably need to win three of the Big Four Races.
2. If the Dems pull an upset in Ohio, Wisconsin or North Carolina, then they can survive with a split of the Big Four.
3. If the Republicans win New Hampshire, they are probably on the way to a big night in both houses.
3. Governor Races: Treading Water, But Lookin at the Margin.
1. The Big States will stay in their lane. The incumbent or incumbent party will win in all seven of the biggest states-CA, TX, FL, NY, IL, PA and OH. Those polls showing Hochul in a tight race a week or two ago will be fodder for jokes.
2. Democrats gain Maryland and Massachusetts easily. They gain OK narrowly. They hold OR & WI very narrowly.
3. Republicans gain Kansas and Nevada. They will also probably hold Arizona, which just might have dire consequences on a lot of fronts.
I am most interested in seeing how some of these races go in comparison to the same state's senate races. I think a lot of voters might want to send the message that candidates matter. The best way to do that is to vote for a competent normie but against flashy celebrity candidates or full-on crazies.
IV. Summary.
A lot of these races are going to be very close and turn on silly things like weather or minor nuances in voting procedures. The results of these elections will affect the nation. Worst of all, the parties will extrapolate lessons from tiny wins and losses. Push the ball in the direction your prefer for this country. You have nothing better to do tomorrow.
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