Tuesday, March 15, 2016
Duper Tuesday (What to Expect)
There are 2,473 delegates this year. The magic number to have a majority is 1,237. After tonight we will have a much better idea of whether or not Donald Trump can get to that number. And we will know for sure that no other candidate has a realistic chance of getting a majority. This is my attempt to lay out the math so you can understand the significance of the results as they roll in.There are six Republican Primarires today.
1. What we already know.
The Northern Mariana Islands have already spoken, awarding all nine delegates to Donald Trump. That means the up to the minute Delegate Count is this: Trump 472, Cruz 371, Rubio 166, Kasich 63, Others 21. (Most of the "Others" delegates are uncommitted, either because the candidate who won them will not be put in nomination as the convention or because people voted to send uncommitted delegates to Cleveland.)
2. Safe Estimates.
Most of the attention on today's primaries has been given to Ohio and Florida because they are big states that award all of their delegates to the state-wide winner. There are actually more delegates available in the other three contests, Illinois, Missouri and North Carolina. Here's how the delegates are likely to break down there.
A. Illinois 69 Delegates. Fifty-four of the delegates are award to the winner of each congressional district in the state. That's 18 separate battles for three delegates apiece. The state wide winner will get 12 bonus delegates and three are for state party officials. Trump is heavily favored to win the state and is likely to win about 12 of the districts. A reasonable assumption would be he gets 48 delegates while Cruz wins 4 downstate districts to get 12 and Kasich or possibly Rubio might win 2 districts in or near Chicago. That breaks down to Trump 48, Cruz 12 and Kasich 9.
B. Missouri has similar rules to Illinois but fewer congressional districts. The The statewide winner will get 28 delegates and there will be eight congressional district levels for three delegates each. This race is very close but I expect that Cruz will win because he has been able to focus his efforts there while Trump fights for Ohio and Florida. The math there could be something like Cruz 43, Trump 9.
C. North Carolina. Simplest math of the night. Every 1.43% of the vote gets you a delegate. Trump has commanding leads in all the polls but these rules will prevent him from running up the score. If he wins with 45% of the vote to 35% for Cruz and 10% each for Rubio and Kasich, the numbers will look something like Trump 34, Cruz 25, Rubio 7, Kasich 6.
So my combined estimate for the proportional states totals up to this: Trump 91, Cruz 80, Kasich 15, Rubio 7. That sets the stage for one of three scenarios at the end of the night.
3. The Possible Scenarios After Tonight.
Trump will almost certainly win Florida, but we have to consider that Rubio has a chance of pulling the upset. Kasich is more likely than not to win Ohio, but it's far from guaranteed. So let's look at where the math will stand in a few hours time, depending on which winner take all states Trump wins.
Trump has 472 delegates. If he gets 91 from the proportional states, he will have 562. Add Ohio he has 623. Add just Florida but not Ohio and he has 661. Add moth and he has 722.
Cruz has 362 Delegates. He can't win OH or FL but I estimate he will have 442 at the end of the night.
Rubio has 166 and should win a handful in NC. If he also wins Florida he will have about 270 delegates and will stay in the fight. If he lose Florida, he will leave the race with about 172 delegates.
Kasich has 63 delegates. He'll win about a dozen in the small states and needs to win Ohio's 66 to stay in the race. If he does he'll have around 240 delegates and can be the establishment choice going forward.
If Trump has a big night, winning OH and FL, he will be on pace for well over 1,300 delegates. He will be the nominee. Even with a split he will be the heavy favorite.
Sunday, March 6, 2016
Republicans Have Two Options
Donald Trump under performed slightly yesterday. He was expected to win three races but only won two. He lost Kansas by a two to one margin and Maine by a lot more than I thought possible. My prediction was that Trump would be at 77% in the Prediction markets today and he is only at 64%. Cruz, Kasich and Rubio are all slightly higher, although at least I got the order right.
I think we learned three things yesterday:
1. Marco Rubio will not be the Republican nominee. He finished last in Maine and a distant third everywhere else. He is almost certain to win Puerto Rico's primary today, but that is the last contest he will win this year. He is done.
2. Ted Cruz will stick around until June but he can't get to 1,237 delegates. He has done well so far but there are very few states that he can win that have not yet voted. A bigger problem for him is that almost none of the states he's likely to win have Winnter Take All rules. He could get all 32 of Idaho's delegates if he manages to get over 50% of the vote, and he might win all 27 of Montan's delegates but he has no chance of winning Ohio, Florida, or Arizona or New Jersey.
3. Donald Trump will get at least a plurality of the delegates and has a good chance of winning a majority. The media narrative of elections is almost always about "momentum" and who beat expectations. Yesterday Cruz took back the momentum and exceeded expectations. But he didn't win enough delegates to match what would be his target to get a majority. Trump is ahead of that pace and he has his best states to look forward to later in the calendar.
This leaves the Republicans Two Options: they can nominate Trump or they can screw him out of the nomination. I'm not sure which option is worse for them, but neither is good.
Votes and Dlegates Math
Trump is winning the vote by six percent and over 600,000 votes. Through 19 states, Trump has won 12, Cruz has won six contests and Rubio only one. One interesting metric is how often a candidate finished first or second. Trump has done so 18 times, Cruz 12, Rubio 5 and Kasich only three times.
Trump; 1,250 (51%)
I think we learned three things yesterday:
1. Marco Rubio will not be the Republican nominee. He finished last in Maine and a distant third everywhere else. He is almost certain to win Puerto Rico's primary today, but that is the last contest he will win this year. He is done.
2. Ted Cruz will stick around until June but he can't get to 1,237 delegates. He has done well so far but there are very few states that he can win that have not yet voted. A bigger problem for him is that almost none of the states he's likely to win have Winnter Take All rules. He could get all 32 of Idaho's delegates if he manages to get over 50% of the vote, and he might win all 27 of Montan's delegates but he has no chance of winning Ohio, Florida, or Arizona or New Jersey.
3. Donald Trump will get at least a plurality of the delegates and has a good chance of winning a majority. The media narrative of elections is almost always about "momentum" and who beat expectations. Yesterday Cruz took back the momentum and exceeded expectations. But he didn't win enough delegates to match what would be his target to get a majority. Trump is ahead of that pace and he has his best states to look forward to later in the calendar.
This leaves the Republicans Two Options: they can nominate Trump or they can screw him out of the nomination. I'm not sure which option is worse for them, but neither is good.
Votes and Dlegates Math
| Popular Vote | Percentage | Raw Vote |
| Trump | 34.6% | 3,603,656 |
| Cruz | 28.8% | 3,002,218 |
| Rubio | 21.3% | 2,221,276 |
| Kasih | 6.9% | 714,355 |
Trump is winning the vote by six percent and over 600,000 votes. Through 19 states, Trump has won 12, Cruz has won six contests and Rubio only one. One interesting metric is how often a candidate finished first or second. Trump has done so 18 times, Cruz 12, Rubio 5 and Kasich only three times.
The Delegate Math also favors Trump. He currently has 391 delegates, to 248 for Cruz, 176 for Rubio and just 37 for Kasich. As of this writing 18 delegates from Louisiana have not been allocated and Rubio is likely to win all or most of the 23 delegates from Puerto Rico.
There are about 35 contests left. I played with the delegate allocations for each and came up with the following final projections:
Trump; 1,250 (51%)
Cruz: 732 (30%)
Kasich 286 (12%)
Rubio 178 (7%)
The biggest variables are the Winner Take All states. I have Trump winning Florida, Arizona and New Jersey but Kasich winning Ohio. My numbers are predicated on Rubio dropping out after losing Florida and Kasich staying in after winning Ohio.
Cruz had a good day but I don't see the delegate math working out for him getting to 1,237. I think his ceiling is about 900. He also seems to be determined to knock Rubio out by campaigning hard in Florida. That probably guarantees 99 delegates to Trump. If Trump manages to win Ohio (he led by five in the most recent poll), then his path to 1,237 seems very likely.
The outcome of the nomination will probably be determined by California on June 7th. The state wide winner gets 10 delegates for winning the state and then each of California's 53 congressional districts have 3 delegates that are awarded to whoever wins that district and three are reserved for party officials. If Trump wins the state, he'll probably need wins in 17 or 18 California congressional districts to cross the line to 1,237. Maybe by then the party will have rallied around Cruz or Kasich or decided to make Trump fight a bunch of two-front wars against one or the other throughout the Golden State.
My math has Trump winning California and 23 of its congressional races. Cruz wins 22 and Kasich wins 8. My methods are far from exact. But that might not even matter. If Trump wins Ohio and Florida on March 15th, he might not need any of California's delegates. And unless Cruz can carry his "momentum" to the big states of the Northeast, he won't be able to prevent Trump from being nominated on the first ballot.
Saturday, March 5, 2016
Super Saturday Expectations
There were a few interesting developments this week on the predictions markets for the Republican nomination. Donald Trump fell by more than10 points despite having won 7 of the 11 contests on Super Tuesday. He went from a peak of 83 percent down to a bottom of just below 70 percent before rebounding up to 73% as I write this.
What's most interesting about this is that none of that advantage went to Marco! Rubio. He won Minnesota on Tuesday but finished third almost everywhere else. (Behind Kasich in New England and Cruz and Trump everywhere else.) The gains went to Ted Cruz, who went from a low of 2% back to nearly double digits, to John Kasich who bounced up from 1% to 5% after looking like the only adult in Thursday night's debate in Detroit. And last but not least both sides of the 2012 ticket, Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan entered the market at 1% and have stayed there since.
But now we're back to a voting day. Four states weigh in on Saturday, with a primary in Lousiana and caucuses set for Maine, Kentucky and Kansas. The delegate math won't move much today. None of these states are winner-take-all and all four candidates can expect to win at least some in one or more states. The real test today is whether an intense week of anti-Tump effort can anyone slow his momentum. Here are a few good things to watch for:
1. How many states does Trump win? He's a heavy favorite in Maine, Louisiana and Kentucky. Cruz should win Kansas, but Trump was leading in the most recent poll. If Trump gets four wins today, that's a pretty resounding rejection of the #NeverTrump movement by the base.
2. Can Kasich win Maine? John Kasich is the only candidate still running without benefit of having won a contest yet. But he has done well in New England so far, having finished in 2nd place in New Hampshire, Vermont and Massachusetts. If Thursday's debate has really created a groundswell for a candidate more mature than the shrieking babies he has shared this stage with, then he just might be competitive in Maine. A victory will help him enormously going forward, especially in Michigan.
3. Can Cruz pull an upset somewhere? Cruz should win Kansas. It's a closed caucus and it's right in the alley of the other states he's won (OK and TX to the south, Iowa to the Northeast.) Winning there is expected. But if he pulls off an upset in KY or LA, then he can make an undisputed claim as the most viable alternative to Donald Trump.
4. Will Rubio even get a 2nd place? Marco Rubio has been abandoned by the establishment and by Fox News in particular. In between Nevada and Super Tuesday, Marco got on the gutter with Trump and came out of it looking worse for wear. It's not hart to imagine him finishing 3rd in all four places and he might be 4th in Maine. That will hurt his images very much and I don't think a likely win in Puerto Rico on Sunday will do him any particular favors going forward in the GOP.
5. How big of a number can Trump put up in Louisiana. It's the only primary today and it's in the deep south, where Trump has done especially well so far. If he gets over 40% he starts to look like a presumptive nominee rather than just a front runner. Rubio could also miss the 20% mark here which would mean he gets no delegates from another sizable state. He can't let happen.
Predictions:
1. Louisiana: Trump 43%, Cruz 27%, Rubio 19%, Kasich 10%.
2. Kentucky: Trump 34%, Cruz 30%, Rubio 27%, Kasich 9%
3. Kansas Cruz 37%, Trump 32%, Rubio 22%, Kaich 9%
4. Maine Trump 28%, Kasich 27%, Cruz 26%, Rubio 19%
So rough night for Rubio, again. I think at noon on Sunday the Predictwise market will look like this:
Trump 77%
Cruz 12%
Kasich 5%
Rubio 4%
Ryan 1%
Romney 1%
By the way I think Ryan is the best buy in this market. He's a much more logical consensus pick at a brokered convention than Romney. If the establishment is out to get Trump, then he's well positioned. But I think their opportunity to do that depends on Trump losing both Ohio and Florida and I don't think that is likely. After March 15th the GOP will have two choices: nominate Trump or screw him out of the nomination. I'm really not sure which is worse for them in the long term.
What's most interesting about this is that none of that advantage went to Marco! Rubio. He won Minnesota on Tuesday but finished third almost everywhere else. (Behind Kasich in New England and Cruz and Trump everywhere else.) The gains went to Ted Cruz, who went from a low of 2% back to nearly double digits, to John Kasich who bounced up from 1% to 5% after looking like the only adult in Thursday night's debate in Detroit. And last but not least both sides of the 2012 ticket, Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan entered the market at 1% and have stayed there since.
But now we're back to a voting day. Four states weigh in on Saturday, with a primary in Lousiana and caucuses set for Maine, Kentucky and Kansas. The delegate math won't move much today. None of these states are winner-take-all and all four candidates can expect to win at least some in one or more states. The real test today is whether an intense week of anti-Tump effort can anyone slow his momentum. Here are a few good things to watch for:
1. How many states does Trump win? He's a heavy favorite in Maine, Louisiana and Kentucky. Cruz should win Kansas, but Trump was leading in the most recent poll. If Trump gets four wins today, that's a pretty resounding rejection of the #NeverTrump movement by the base.
2. Can Kasich win Maine? John Kasich is the only candidate still running without benefit of having won a contest yet. But he has done well in New England so far, having finished in 2nd place in New Hampshire, Vermont and Massachusetts. If Thursday's debate has really created a groundswell for a candidate more mature than the shrieking babies he has shared this stage with, then he just might be competitive in Maine. A victory will help him enormously going forward, especially in Michigan.
3. Can Cruz pull an upset somewhere? Cruz should win Kansas. It's a closed caucus and it's right in the alley of the other states he's won (OK and TX to the south, Iowa to the Northeast.) Winning there is expected. But if he pulls off an upset in KY or LA, then he can make an undisputed claim as the most viable alternative to Donald Trump.
4. Will Rubio even get a 2nd place? Marco Rubio has been abandoned by the establishment and by Fox News in particular. In between Nevada and Super Tuesday, Marco got on the gutter with Trump and came out of it looking worse for wear. It's not hart to imagine him finishing 3rd in all four places and he might be 4th in Maine. That will hurt his images very much and I don't think a likely win in Puerto Rico on Sunday will do him any particular favors going forward in the GOP.
5. How big of a number can Trump put up in Louisiana. It's the only primary today and it's in the deep south, where Trump has done especially well so far. If he gets over 40% he starts to look like a presumptive nominee rather than just a front runner. Rubio could also miss the 20% mark here which would mean he gets no delegates from another sizable state. He can't let happen.
Predictions:
1. Louisiana: Trump 43%, Cruz 27%, Rubio 19%, Kasich 10%.
2. Kentucky: Trump 34%, Cruz 30%, Rubio 27%, Kasich 9%
3. Kansas Cruz 37%, Trump 32%, Rubio 22%, Kaich 9%
4. Maine Trump 28%, Kasich 27%, Cruz 26%, Rubio 19%
So rough night for Rubio, again. I think at noon on Sunday the Predictwise market will look like this:
Trump 77%
Cruz 12%
Kasich 5%
Rubio 4%
Ryan 1%
Romney 1%
By the way I think Ryan is the best buy in this market. He's a much more logical consensus pick at a brokered convention than Romney. If the establishment is out to get Trump, then he's well positioned. But I think their opportunity to do that depends on Trump losing both Ohio and Florida and I don't think that is likely. After March 15th the GOP will have two choices: nominate Trump or screw him out of the nomination. I'm really not sure which is worse for them in the long term.
Tuesday, March 1, 2016
What to Watch For
So tonight is probably the night that Trump goes from front-runner to all but certain nominee. I do not think it will be possible for another candidate to get a delegate majority but after today, even if Trump romps, it will still be possible to deny him an outright majority of delegates.
He is heavily favored to win 10 of the 12 GOP contests being held today and he also leads in Minnesota by a closer margin. Ted Cruz is likely to win Texas but probably won't do well in other places.
Here are the most important things to watch for tonight.
1. Can Rubio salvage a win? There are at least two states where he has a more than theoretical chance of winning-Minnesota and Virginia. If he wins both we can expect an avalanche of endorsements running towards him the rest of this week. If he gets a split, he at least avoids the talking point that he can't win anywhere. If he loses everywhere than he is probably doomed.
2. Can Rubio get 20% in Texas? Texas' delegates are awarded proportionally unless the winner exceeds 50% of the vote. I don't think Cruz will get to that number. In order get a share of the delegates a candidate must receive at least 20% of the vote. If Rubio doesn't hit that number, than Trump and Cruz will split all 155 of those delegates. That's 31 delegates that Rubio could lose by a very close margin. He can not let that happen.
3. Can Rubio keep it close in Georgia? Trump broke out the heavy guns in Georgia yesterday: Bill France the head of NASCAR. Most recent polls have Trump with a big lead but with Rubio pulling head of Cruz in second place. If he has a prayer of being the nominee, this is a state where he will close well.
4. Can Bernie win anywhere other than Vermont? Minnesota, Colorado, Oklahoma and Massachusetts should all be competitive for the Democrats tonight. Hillary will roll to big victories everywhere else.
5. Will Kasich show any signs of live? He should compete in Vermont and Massachusetts. I don't think he will win either but his path to the nomination involves denying Trump a majority, winning some big northern states and then hoping to be the consensus grown up choice at the convention.
6. Can Trump get to 50.1% in Alabama? If so he wins all 50 delegates there. That's when the math really starts to look bad for the Field.
Official Predictions for Super Tuesday.
GOP: Trump wins everywhere except TX (Cruz) and MN (Rubio)
Texas: Cruz 41% Trump 29% Rubio 21% Carson 5% Kasich 4%
Minnesota: Rubio 41%, Trump 39%, Cruz 14%, Kasich 6%
Georgia: Trump 49%, Rubio 27%, Cruz 18%, Carson 6%
Alabama: Trump 52%, Cruz 23%, Rubio 19%, Carson 5%
DEM: Clinton wins everywhere except VT, OK & CO
Vermont: Sanders 84%, Clinton 15%
Oklahoma: Sanders 52%, Clinton 48%
Colorado: Sanders 51%, Clinton 48%
Minnesota: Clinton 53%, Sanders 47%
Massachusetts: Clinton 54%, Sanders 46%
He is heavily favored to win 10 of the 12 GOP contests being held today and he also leads in Minnesota by a closer margin. Ted Cruz is likely to win Texas but probably won't do well in other places.
Here are the most important things to watch for tonight.
1. Can Rubio salvage a win? There are at least two states where he has a more than theoretical chance of winning-Minnesota and Virginia. If he wins both we can expect an avalanche of endorsements running towards him the rest of this week. If he gets a split, he at least avoids the talking point that he can't win anywhere. If he loses everywhere than he is probably doomed.
2. Can Rubio get 20% in Texas? Texas' delegates are awarded proportionally unless the winner exceeds 50% of the vote. I don't think Cruz will get to that number. In order get a share of the delegates a candidate must receive at least 20% of the vote. If Rubio doesn't hit that number, than Trump and Cruz will split all 155 of those delegates. That's 31 delegates that Rubio could lose by a very close margin. He can not let that happen.
3. Can Rubio keep it close in Georgia? Trump broke out the heavy guns in Georgia yesterday: Bill France the head of NASCAR. Most recent polls have Trump with a big lead but with Rubio pulling head of Cruz in second place. If he has a prayer of being the nominee, this is a state where he will close well.
4. Can Bernie win anywhere other than Vermont? Minnesota, Colorado, Oklahoma and Massachusetts should all be competitive for the Democrats tonight. Hillary will roll to big victories everywhere else.
5. Will Kasich show any signs of live? He should compete in Vermont and Massachusetts. I don't think he will win either but his path to the nomination involves denying Trump a majority, winning some big northern states and then hoping to be the consensus grown up choice at the convention.
6. Can Trump get to 50.1% in Alabama? If so he wins all 50 delegates there. That's when the math really starts to look bad for the Field.
Official Predictions for Super Tuesday.
GOP: Trump wins everywhere except TX (Cruz) and MN (Rubio)
Texas: Cruz 41% Trump 29% Rubio 21% Carson 5% Kasich 4%
Minnesota: Rubio 41%, Trump 39%, Cruz 14%, Kasich 6%
Georgia: Trump 49%, Rubio 27%, Cruz 18%, Carson 6%
Alabama: Trump 52%, Cruz 23%, Rubio 19%, Carson 5%
DEM: Clinton wins everywhere except VT, OK & CO
Vermont: Sanders 84%, Clinton 15%
Oklahoma: Sanders 52%, Clinton 48%
Colorado: Sanders 51%, Clinton 48%
Minnesota: Clinton 53%, Sanders 47%
Massachusetts: Clinton 54%, Sanders 46%
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