Duper Tuesday (What to Expect)

There are 2,473 delegates this year.  The magic number to have a majority is 1,237.  After tonight we will have a much better idea of whether or not Donald Trump can get to that number.  And we will know for sure that no other candidate has a realistic chance of getting a majority.  This is my attempt to lay out the math so you can understand the significance of the results as they roll in.There are six Republican Primarires today.

1.  What we already know.
The Northern Mariana Islands have already spoken, awarding all nine delegates to Donald Trump.  That means the up to the minute Delegate Count is this:  Trump 472, Cruz 371, Rubio 166, Kasich 63, Others 21.  (Most of the "Others" delegates are uncommitted, either because the candidate who won them will not be put in nomination as the convention or because people voted to send uncommitted delegates to Cleveland.)

2.  Safe Estimates.
Most of the attention on today's primaries has been given to Ohio and Florida because they are big states that award all of their delegates to the state-wide winner. There are actually more delegates available in the other three contests, Illinois, Missouri and North Carolina. Here's how the delegates are likely to break down there.

A. Illinois 69 Delegates.  Fifty-four of the delegates are award to the winner of each congressional district in the state.  That's 18 separate battles for three delegates apiece.  The state wide winner will get 12 bonus delegates and three are for state party officials.  Trump is heavily favored to win the state and is likely to win about 12 of the districts.  A reasonable assumption would be he gets 48 delegates while Cruz wins 4 downstate districts to get 12 and Kasich or possibly Rubio might win 2 districts in or near Chicago.  That breaks down to Trump 48, Cruz 12 and Kasich 9.

B. Missouri has similar rules to Illinois but fewer congressional districts.  The The statewide winner will get 28 delegates and there will be eight congressional district levels for three delegates each.  This race is very close but I expect that Cruz will win because he has been able to focus his efforts there while Trump fights for Ohio and Florida.  The math there could be something like Cruz 43, Trump 9.

C. North Carolina.  Simplest math of the night.  Every 1.43% of the vote gets you a delegate.  Trump has commanding leads in all the polls but these rules will prevent him from running up the score. If he wins with 45% of the vote to 35% for Cruz and 10% each for Rubio and Kasich, the numbers will look something like Trump 34, Cruz 25, Rubio 7, Kasich 6.

So my combined estimate for the proportional states totals up to this: Trump 91, Cruz 80, Kasich 15, Rubio 7.  That sets the stage for one of three scenarios at the end of the night.


3. The Possible Scenarios After Tonight.

Trump will almost certainly win Florida, but we have to consider that Rubio has a chance of pulling the upset.  Kasich is more likely than not to win Ohio, but it's far from guaranteed. So let's look at where the math will stand in a few hours time, depending on which winner take all states Trump wins.

Trump has 472 delegates.  If he gets 91 from the proportional states, he will have 562. Add Ohio he has 623. Add just Florida but not Ohio and he has 661.  Add moth and he has  722.

Cruz has 362 Delegates. He can't win OH or FL but I estimate he will have 442 at the end of the night.

Rubio has 166 and should win a handful in NC.  If he also wins Florida he will have about 270 delegates and will stay in the fight.  If he lose Florida, he will leave the race with about 172 delegates.

Kasich has 63 delegates. He'll win about a dozen in the small states and needs to win Ohio's 66 to stay in the race.  If he does he'll have around 240 delegates and can be the establishment choice going forward.

If Trump has a big night, winning OH and FL, he will be on pace for well over 1,300 delegates.  He will be the nominee.  Even with a split he will be the heavy favorite.