I used to post about The Walking Dead with some frequency. I still watch and enjoy the show but I haven't taken the tie to write a post since November when only a few hours of the current season had aired. That post was called "All Tactics, No Strategy" and lamented the short-sighted nature of Rick's leadership. This season has done nothing to change my mind on that point.
I'm writing this with just over one hour to go before the season six finale begins. This episode is the most highly anticipated because it is expected to mirror the events of the 100th episode of the Comic Book. (Comic Spoilers ahead....) In that issue, Negan arrives and beats Glenn to death with a baseball bat. Ever since Glenn's bogus near-death experience in the beginning of this season a lot of folks have wondered if the TV show would match that story line exactly. It certainly might. But I hope it doesn't because I have come to conclude that for the good of the group, and the show, Rick should die tonight.
Let me state upfront that I think this is very unlikely. The show is still a hero's journey and Rick is the hero. He is who we met in the first cold open. This is a Western and he is the sheriff. Killing him would be a monumental leap of storytelling that probably means the actor made unreasonable salary demands to go forward. But if they go this route, then our merry band of survivors will be better off.
This season has been entertaining. The production values are still remarkable for a cable TV show and the acting is fine even when the writing is uneven. But this is the first season where it felt like the producers were hoarding the characters we care about. No one of importance has died. (Sorry Jesse and Dr. Denise, but you know it's true. The coolest character to die was probably the leader of the Wolves and I wouldn't put him in the Top 25 of characters the show has given us.)
So tonight they either go big or leave the audience feeling gypped. I think one of 4 major characters has to die tonight or else the show will feel lost its ability to make us feel like everyone is vulnerable. Those 4 characters are the only adults left from the first season: Rick, Darryl, Carol and Glenn. I will consider each in turn.
1. Rick is an imbecile. Don't believe me? Let's review ever decision he has made since smoking the cannibals in Father Gabriel's church.
a. Treat the Alexandrians like idiots. What did that gain anyone?
b. Lead 30,000 Walkers past the gates of Alexandria on foot. What could possibly go wrong?
c. Decide to walk a baby through a giant herd of zombies only to remember halfway through that babies cry. How did that work out for Jesse?
d. Kill 50 of Negna's men in return for a few weeks of rations from the Hilltop.
e. Kill the guy claiming to be Negan before Carol and Maggie can tell him that the guy is lying. Gee, maybe that guy had some valuable intel on the Saviors. But we'll never know, will we?
f. Lounge around eating apples while bragging about how easy it will be to kill whoever is left of the group you have violently attacked on three separate occasions.
g. Let 7 of your best fighters go chase Carol while Negan is preparing to storm your gates. Tonight we'll find out just how expensive that stupidity was.
2. Darryl would hurt the show too much. If he dies it is because the actor got tired of the terrible plot lines and I will wish him well. Also, the ratings will drop like a rock next season.
3. Carol is the obvious favorite of the writers. She is the best actress in the company and her story line has been compelling. I think she escaped for a reason last week and I don't expect her to return in time to save anyone tonight. We'll see her, but it will be next year and I think her story will take a big new turn that we don't see coming.
4. Glenn. Well, they are relying on the Comic Books more and more. He is a fan favorite and his death would shock the audience, even those who expect it to come. It is the safe choice in some ways but I think he will leave a hole in the show that won't be easily plugged.
One long shot possibility is killing Michonne or Maggie. The audience cares enough about them but I don't think either character is ready to go. The cruel thing to do to Maggie would be to kill Glenn and have her miscarry. That seems to cruel. Little Herschel ought to be here next year.
Death Probabilities tonight: Glenn 60%, Darryl 25%, Rick 10%, Carol 3%. Maggie & Michoone 1% each
Minor Deaths.
I think we'll get at least one B player death tonight. Abraham would be the obvious choice. (In the comics he died 2 issues before tonight.) Tara and/or Heath might get killed. (Apparently the actor who plays Heath is on a different show starting this fall.) Rosita, Sasha and Aaron would all be losses worth mentioning.
They will probably throw in a 3rd rate player too. Tobin, Spencer, etc. Someone that people will say "Oh that guy too, huh?" Look for this in the 2nd act.
Scoreboard.
The biggest storytelling challenge is to make Negan the bad guy. Consider the death toll so far:
Darryl killed 9 guys with the grenade launcher. Rick murdered 25 people in their sleep at the satellite compound. Carol and Maggie killed 4 more at the slaughterhouse, then lured another 10 to join them in death. And Darryl, Abraham and Rosita killed at least 2 more by the rail road tracks. That's 50 dead against only poor Doctor Denise.
Negan's going to have to make quite an impression tonight to make us feel bad about whatever it is he does to Rick's group. Maybe killing Rick is the wrong way to go, thematically. After all, Rick deserves to die.
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