Saturday, March 5, 2016

Super Saturday Expectations

There were a few interesting developments this week on the predictions markets for the Republican nomination.  Donald Trump fell by more than10 points despite having won 7 of the 11 contests on Super Tuesday.  He went from a peak of 83 percent down to a bottom of just below 70 percent before rebounding up to 73% as I write this.

What's most interesting about this is that none of that advantage went to Marco! Rubio.   He won Minnesota on Tuesday but finished third almost everywhere else. (Behind Kasich in New England and Cruz and Trump everywhere else.) The gains went to Ted Cruz, who went from a low of 2% back to nearly double digits, to John Kasich who bounced up from 1% to 5% after looking like the only adult in Thursday night's debate in Detroit. And last but not least both sides of the 2012 ticket, Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan entered the market at 1% and have stayed there since.

But now we're back to a voting day. Four states weigh in on Saturday, with a primary in Lousiana and caucuses set for Maine, Kentucky and Kansas.  The delegate math won't move much today. None of these states are winner-take-all and all four candidates can expect to win at least some in one or more states.  The real test today is whether an intense week of anti-Tump effort can anyone slow his momentum.  Here are a few good things to watch for:

1. How many states does Trump win?  He's a heavy favorite in Maine, Louisiana and Kentucky.  Cruz should win Kansas, but Trump was leading in the most recent poll.  If Trump gets four wins today, that's a pretty resounding rejection of the #NeverTrump movement by the base.

2. Can Kasich win Maine?  John Kasich is the only candidate still running without benefit of having won a contest yet.  But he has done well in New England so far, having finished in 2nd place in New Hampshire, Vermont and Massachusetts. If Thursday's debate has really created a groundswell for a candidate more mature than the shrieking babies he has shared this stage with, then he just might be competitive in Maine. A victory will help him enormously going forward, especially in Michigan.

3. Can Cruz pull an upset somewhere?  Cruz should win Kansas.  It's a closed caucus and it's right in the alley of the other states he's won (OK and TX to the south, Iowa to the Northeast.) Winning there is expected. But if he pulls off an upset in KY or LA, then he can make an undisputed claim as the most viable alternative to Donald Trump.

4. Will Rubio even get a 2nd place?  Marco Rubio has been abandoned by the establishment and by Fox News in particular.  In between Nevada and Super Tuesday, Marco got on the gutter with Trump and came out of it looking worse for wear.  It's not hart to imagine him finishing 3rd in all four places and he might be 4th in Maine.  That will hurt his images very much and I don't think a likely win in Puerto Rico on Sunday will do him any particular favors going forward in the GOP.

5. How big of a number can Trump put up in Louisiana.  It's the only primary today and it's in the deep south, where Trump has done especially well so far.  If he gets over 40% he starts to look like a presumptive nominee rather than just a front runner. Rubio could also miss the 20% mark here which would mean he gets no delegates from another sizable state.  He can't let happen.

Predictions:

1.  Louisiana: Trump 43%, Cruz 27%, Rubio 19%, Kasich 10%.
2. Kentucky:  Trump 34%, Cruz 30%, Rubio 27%, Kasich 9%
3. Kansas      Cruz 37%, Trump 32%, Rubio 22%, Kaich 9%
4. Maine     Trump 28%, Kasich 27%, Cruz 26%, Rubio 19%


So rough night for Rubio, again.  I think at noon on Sunday the Predictwise market will look like this:

Trump 77%
Cruz 12%
Kasich 5%
Rubio  4%
Ryan 1%
Romney 1%

By the way I think Ryan is the best buy in this market.  He's a much more logical consensus pick at a brokered convention than Romney. If the establishment is out to get Trump, then he's well positioned. But I think their opportunity to do that depends on Trump losing both Ohio and Florida and I don't think that is likely.  After March 15th the GOP will have two choices: nominate Trump or screw him out of the nomination.  I'm really not sure which is worse for them in the long term.













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