Two months ago I posted a similar map showing the status of Marriage Equality. But that map was inaccurate in one important respect. Until about 12 hours ago, zero state had true marriage equality. A same-sex couple married in New York or Iowa were not entitled to federal benefits, such as the right to collect spousal social security benefits. And military couples could only get additional Basic Allowance for Housing money if their spouse was of the opposite gender.
So, now when I say equal....I mean equal. And that's a great thing. Marriage equality now exists in 13 states, plus the District of Columbia. That adds up to 161 electoral votes and 30% of the American people. The seven states that have some legal recognition of gay relationships cover an additional 70 Electoral Votes. More than forty percent of Americans now live in states that have at least some form of legal recognition of gay relationships.
The larger point of my previous post was just how closely the Marriage Equality map tracks the Electoral College map. Writing today, that's even more clear. With California and Minnesota brought into the fold, we now have 13 States plus the District of Columbia (Blue in the above map) with true Marriage Equality. Seven other states provide for either Civil Unions or Domestic Partnerships (Green) that provide at least some, but not all of the benefits of marriage. Today's opinion stopped short of doing, as some hoped it would, of elevating these relationships to full marital status. And then 30 states offer no legal recognition of same-sex relationships (Red).
All 21 jurisdictions that recognize gay relationships voted for Barack Obama in 2012. All twenty four states that voted for Mitt Romney do not recognize gay relationships. The President's best results in a non-recognition states were Michigan (54%) and New Mexico (53%). The other states that the President carried but do not have legal recognition of gay marriage (PA, VA, OH and FL), gave him less than 52% .Every state where he got under 50% do not recognize gay marriage.
This correlation is even more pronounced when you sort the states by the margin of difference for the Presidential election. Barack carried all 21 Recognition states by more than five percent of the vote. Barack Obama's 15 best states all recognize gay relationships and 11 of them have Marriage Equality. Every state where President Obama's got more than 54.2% of the vote, recognize gay relationships.
This correlation seems to indicate that Marriage Equality's best changes for growth are in the states that have recognition but not equality. Hawaii, Illinois, Nevada and Oregon seem the most likely places to achieve marriage equality next. But beyond those few states, the road ahead may be tough. New Jersey, and to a lesser degree Wisconsin, should be prime candidates but they both currently have Republican governors with national political ambitions.
Among the non-recognition states, Pennsylvania and New Mexico may get there, but I don't think it will be in the next year or two. Beyond that, we may see a slow gradual process whereby Red or at least Purple states embrace marriage equality over a generation, if not longer. Or maybe, sometime sooner than that, the issue will be before a Supreme Court with a different ideological bent than currently constituted, and the right to be married will be federally recognized.
For now, we have marriage equality in one state for every stripe on the flag. Now, onto the stars.
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