The Ideological Geography and Demography of the Voters.
The nominating process is about appealing to very specific slivers of the electorate. For the last several decades, the Republican primaries usually come down to which candidate can appeal sufficiently to the Pro-Business/Wall Street wing, and without completely alienating the more religious elements of the Christian right. The 2016 race may be a little more complicated, because I think there are two spectrum along which the candidates will compete, one related to domestic issues and the other to foreign policy and military issues.
A. The Domestic Divide: Bankers and Zealots.
B. Foreign Policy Divide: Hawks and Isolationists.
The domestic divide is nothing new but this might be the first Republican campaign in my lifetime to feature real, fervent debates about foreign policy issues. For the past few cycles, the Isolationist wing of the Party has been a sideshow with a small but vocal base of voters who rally to Ron Paul. But one effect of the Republican base loathing President Obama has been to stoke some skepticism about the wisdom of an imperial presidency and foreign policy. It's probably a fad, and I don't think the party will stick to this idea if and when they have the keys to the Oval Office, but it could influence the race and so I will give a grade to each candidate for how they might appeal to each half of these two spectra. Each candidate will be given a grade for his ability to appeal to Bankers, Zealots, Hawks and Isolationists.
I. The Contenders
The contenders are ranked by their strength as a general election candidate. The number by their name is the age they will be on Election Day, 2016.
1. Jeb Bush (63). Its easy to dismiss him because of the baggage his name carries but the Bush name is not going to hurt him in the Republican primaries. Believe it or not, that third of the country thinks his brother did a bang-up job, more or less. Besides, Jeb is the smart one. It was a fluke that his idiot brother became President and I thinkg that must chap his ass. I like to picture George 41 begging Jeb to step up and fix the family legacy. (I'm not saying that W is their Fredo. That could be Neil but W. is more like a lightweight version of Santino who sent other people's kids to dive over to Connie and Carlo's house.)
Jeb will have instant appeal to establishment Republicans because of his name. And he will also seem like a smart investment because he is very popular in Florida and the GOP probably can't win a Presidential election without winning Florida. So he will have money, and name recognition and won't come off like a clown. This should be enough to make him the front-runner by the time we get to Iowa.
Report Card: Bankers: A- Zealots: A- Hawks: A- Isolationists: C+
So I think he has pretty broad appeal, and I think that the Isolationists are the smallest segment in this party. In fact, I think their numbers are temporarily inflated by the widespread distrust of the currrent President. Deep down a lot of those folks would be happy to have another President they can trust enough to start a war or two in the Middle East. But to the extent the Paulites have any legitimate claims of influencing Republican foreign policy, Jeb will suffer for the many sins of his brother.
Chance of Running: 85% Chance of being the nominee: 28%
Veep Prospects: Slim. The Bush name will be a net minus in the general, so unless the nominee really thinks a Veep can sew up Florida, they won't be picking old Jeb.
2. Chris Christie (54). Governor Christie is basking in the glow of an easy win in a deep blue state. I'm not sure that has a lot of significance two years from now, but it does allow him to frame a specific narrative: I'm the guy who can win in places that we can't win. It's not the worst start point for a candidate in this field. And I rank him second because I do think he will expand the electoral map, not just to New Jersey but I think he would run relatively strong in New Hampshire, Ohio and Pennsylvania.
There are also reasons to be bearish about him. Firstly, he's an obnoxious jerk. And while that seems to fit the nation's personality more often than we like to admit, it is off-putting. It's also hard to gauge how people will react to him as he slims down over the next three years due to his gastric bypass surgery. It's a weird thing to say but he will look very different two years from now, and that will affect how people react to him. Maybe they will admire him for being proactive about his weight. Maybe others will resent him for it. It might cost him some of his every-man shtick if he's 185 pounds at the time of the Iowa caucuses. The rumors about how what the Romney campaign learned in vetting him also raise some unsavory prospects.
My biggest reservation though is that the Right Wing noise machine really hates him. Last night I endured Sean Hannity and Anne Coulter going through a laundry list of things he did to infuriate that crowd. (Embracing President Obama after Sandy, appointing some people they didn't like, presumably including this guy, scheduling a special election for the Senate that Corey Booker won, etc.)
Report Card: Bankers: A- Zealots: B+ Hawks: B+ Isolationists: B-
Solid across the board, but like most Governors he is a bit of cipher on international issues. He seems likely to be more of a Remember 9/11! candidate than an aspiring Isolationist.
Chance of Running: 99% Chance of being the nominee: 26%
Veep Prospects: Reasonable. If a hard right nominee emerges, Christie may be seen as bringing balance to the ticket, along with a chance to expand the map to some states that the Democrats would otherwise take for granted.
3. Rick Santorum (58). The Republican presidential nominating process is more like a Royal Succession than an open primary. In 1976 Gerald Ford narrowly beat Ronald Reagan. Four years later, Reagan staved off George H.W. Bush, who 8 years later defeated Bob Dole to become the nominee. Four years after that Bob Dole won the nomination rather easily, which left a void in the successor position. In 2000 Bush beat McCain, who won the nomination the next time around, by beating Mitt Romney, who, you guessed it, was nominated the time after that. If this pattern holds, Rick Santorum will be the nominee of the Republican party. But almost no one is talking about him as
a serious contender.
a serious contender.
Report Card: Bankers: B+ Zealots: A Hawks: A- Isolationists: B-
His appeal is definitely broad enough to win. I don't think he will automatically alienate any of the major constituencies in the Republican party. True Libertarians won't vote for him, but I don't think they make up a big share of the early states. The GOP has also floated the idea of scheduling a Super Tuesday after the traditional early states, in the upper Midwest. I think Santorum would benefit from that schedule, if only because it would diminish the importance of the Southern States, and most of the other contenders are southerners.
His appeal is definitely broad enough to win. I don't think he will automatically alienate any of the major constituencies in the Republican party. True Libertarians won't vote for him, but I don't think they make up a big share of the early states. The GOP has also floated the idea of scheduling a Super Tuesday after the traditional early states, in the upper Midwest. I think Santorum would benefit from that schedule, if only because it would diminish the importance of the Southern States, and most of the other contenders are southerners.
Chance of Running: 85% Chance of being the nominee: 23%
Veep Prospects: Modest. But if he runs strong but loses to someone other than Christie, the nominee might feel like he's the best chance at picking off Pennsylvania.
4. Ted Cruz (46). Just as Christie has already planted his flag in the center of this field, Senator Cruz has planted his in the hearts and minds of the parties right wing. When the history of the 2013 Shutdown of the Federal Government is written, it may well be decided that the whole thing happened because this guy was looking to collect Email addresses of potential donors. He also has the one thing that every Presidential candidate needs: a ridiculously out-sized belief in his own ability and intelligence. So he's running. And he will have an army of volunteers out there in Iowa. But I think his recent game of chicken with the global economy may have hurt him a little too much with the establishment. And the thing about appealing to crazy people is you have to keep being crazy. It never, ever stops. So he can lose their support over almost any damned fool thing in the next 26 months. But for now, the polls show he has a plurality of support among Republican primary voters. So he belongs up here with the big boys.
Report Card: Bankers: C Zealots: A Hawks: B+ Isolationists: B+
He has already painted himself into a corner with the money types. They won't forget that he took the prospect of default right to the wire. But I think he's stronger on foreign policy than most people appreciate, because I think he is best able to balance public lip service about the fear of a certain President while also subtly conveying the very real fear of certain other threats to national security.
Chance of Running: 99.9999999999999%
Chance of being the nominee: 13%
Veep Prospects: The only way he gets on the ticket is if he is an extremely close runner-up in the primaries and the establishment nominee feels they need to pick him or else risk losing the enthusiasm of the base. This is doubly unlikely though, as the GOP base always rallies to oppose the Democratic nominee, and that will be even easier if that nominee is named Hillary Clinton.
5. Rand Paul (53). Rand has two things going for him: a built-in fund raising base among people who supported his father so fervently in the last two cycles, and a deep personal commitment to an ideology that justifies any amount of dishonesty, greed and shamelessness in the pursuit of personal glory and political power.
So you guessed it...I don't like this guy. Every once in a while he seems to take a principled stand on something, but deep down he's only really committed to his own cause. When President Obama was threatening to go to war in Syria, Senator Paul could have opposed it on the lofty principal that America shouldn't take sides in another countries civil war. But that might send the wrong message to the very people who will vote to determine the 2016 GOP nomination. So he took it as step further and said that President Obama was wrong to pursue this war because the bloody, dictatorial Assad regime was good, because it was a friend to Christians, and that the rebels were dirty Muslim terrorists.
That's about as cynical as it can get. But it bought him cover. Instead of taking a principled stand against foreign interventions, he was standing up to this President on behalf of Christians. Oi vey.
So you guessed it...I don't like this guy. Every once in a while he seems to take a principled stand on something, but deep down he's only really committed to his own cause. When President Obama was threatening to go to war in Syria, Senator Paul could have opposed it on the lofty principal that America shouldn't take sides in another countries civil war. But that might send the wrong message to the very people who will vote to determine the 2016 GOP nomination. So he took it as step further and said that President Obama was wrong to pursue this war because the bloody, dictatorial Assad regime was good, because it was a friend to Christians, and that the rebels were dirty Muslim terrorists.
That's about as cynical as it can get. But it bought him cover. Instead of taking a principled stand against foreign interventions, he was standing up to this President on behalf of Christians. Oi vey.
Report Card: Bankers: A- Zealots: B Hawks: D Isolationists: A
I think his cynicism will only get him so far. I don't think he can win the principled foreign policy argument this time around and I know the other candidates will paint him as soft on Muslims. He probably also hurt his standing with some of the big money types by supporting the government shutdown, although he was tactful enough to not be the public face of it. His recent plaigarism scandal also revealed that he might be too thin-skinned for this contest. But he will run, and he will have money and he will be shameless. So he has a punchers chance.
Chance of Running: 99% Chance of being the nominee: 5%
I think his cynicism will only get him so far. I don't think he can win the principled foreign policy argument this time around and I know the other candidates will paint him as soft on Muslims. He probably also hurt his standing with some of the big money types by supporting the government shutdown, although he was tactful enough to not be the public face of it. His recent plaigarism scandal also revealed that he might be too thin-skinned for this contest. But he will run, and he will have money and he will be shameless. So he has a punchers chance.
Chance of Running: 99% Chance of being the nominee: 5%
Veep Prospects: Unlikely. He doesn't strengthen the party in any battle grounds and I think the establishment types will consider him too unorthodox to put on the ticket.
I just added up the Chance of Being the Nominee for each candidate and came to 95%. That makes the rest of the filed a 20 to one shot. That's probably a little high, given that so much can change in the next two years. But as you'll see below, everyone else has some serious problems to over come.
I just added up the Chance of Being the Nominee for each candidate and came to 95%. That makes the rest of the filed a 20 to one shot. That's probably a little high, given that so much can change in the next two years. But as you'll see below, everyone else has some serious problems to over come.
II. The Not Ready for Prime Time Candidates (Also-Rans).
6. Marco Rubio (45). Senator Rubio is more likely to one day become President than any other person mentioned in this essay. But that day will not be 2016. He is too young, to unseasoned and he's already committed a huge tactical error that will cost him if he does run this time.
By supporting comprehensive immigration reform, he alienated too many voters. His painfully nervous response to the Presidents State of the Union address also gave the impression that he's just not ready for the heavy stuff yet. But time is on his side. He's a young man and if the Republicans lose in 2016, they will have to realize that the road back to the White House requires diversifying. He's smart and he's handsome and if he's smart, he'll sit this one out.
Report Card: Bankers: A- Zealots: B Hawks: B+ Isolationists: B
Chance of Running: 50% Chance of being the nominee: Less than 1%
Veep Prospects: High. The Republican nominee will see him as a tremendous asset in Florida and as a bridge to non-white voters. The base will live with him on the ticket as long as the top half is solidly against comprehensive immigration reform. And the only potential nominee that that would not be true of is Jeb Bush, and because of the 12th Amendment, no nominee will ever pick a running mate from the same state.
7. Paul Ryan (46). Losing Vice-Presidential candidates almost always run for President but the last time won actually became his party's nominee was Franklin Delano Roosevelt. As Lloy Bentsen would say, Paul Ryan is no Franklin Delano Roosevelt.
He was at best a mediocre candidate for the Romney campaign and he doesn't seem to inspire much of a reaction in anyone, really. If he runs, it might be because he realizes that he will have a tough time ever winning a state-wide race in Wisconsin. And that tells you all you need to know about his Presidential prospects.
Report Card: Bankers: B+ Zealots: B Hawks: B Isolationists: C
Chance of Running: 50% Chance of being the nominee: Less than 1%
Veep Prospects: Zero. He had his chance.
8. Bobby Jindal (45). The party isn't ready to nominate someone as....exotic as Governor Jindal. He seems like a nice enough guy and he's probably more competent than most of the people on this list. But this dog just doesn't hunt.
8. Bobby Jindal (45). The party isn't ready to nominate someone as....exotic as Governor Jindal. He seems like a nice enough guy and he's probably more competent than most of the people on this list. But this dog just doesn't hunt.
Report Card: Bankers: A- Zealots: B- Hawks: B Isolationists: D
Chance of Running: 35% Chance of being the nominee: 0%
Veep Prospects: He'll be on everyone's short list, if only because he meets the minimum resume standards and seems to be a likable guy that might poll well with independents. But he also doesn't help in any battle grounds and there's no compelling reason to put him on the ticket, unless the nominee wants to dip the party's toes into the diversity pool. Unlikely but possible.
9. Scott Walker (49). He's a mediocrity, but an ambitious mediocrity. And he has some national pull among the Tea Party because of an unsuccessful attempt to recall him from the Governor's mansion in Madison. He also has already begun trying out his shtick that Congress is so unpopular that the GOP nominee must be a Governor. So he's working it.
9. Scott Walker (49). He's a mediocrity, but an ambitious mediocrity. And he has some national pull among the Tea Party because of an unsuccessful attempt to recall him from the Governor's mansion in Madison. He also has already begun trying out his shtick that Congress is so unpopular that the GOP nominee must be a Governor. So he's working it.
Report Card: Bankers: B Zealots: B+ Hawks: B Isolationists: B-
Chance of Running: 70% Chance of being the nominee: 0%
Veep Prospects: Eh. Why not?.
10. Rick Perry (66). Well, he looks good for his age, doesn't he? And that's about the only really strong point in his favor. I think he might run because he wants to erase the memory of his horrific, car crash 2012 campaign. But he was such a lousy candidate last time that I think he will have a really hard time raising money this time around. No one wants to invest in someone so unlikely to win..
The Niche Candidates (The Really Fun Stuff.).
I have a pretty intense interest in hopeless Presidential candidacies. I remember once reading an article about George McGovern contemplating a third run for the Presidency in 1992. The gist of the article was that he had recently sold a bed and breakfast that he was running with his wife and was trying to decide between buying a smaller bed and breakfast somewhere else or running for President. What a great choice-downscale a small business or run to be the most important person in the world. It is a credit to Senator McGovern that he chose the former.
Running for President is now it's own reward. Mike Huckabee turned his 2008 campaign into a comfortable life as a media personality. Dennis Kucinich is employed by Fox News solely because he got flogged in a few Democratic presidential attempts. And appearing on stage with actual contenders is good for your lecture fees and gives your grandchildren something to put on their college applications. "Assistant Regional Coordinator for Young Voter Outreach" sounds pretty nifty, doesn't it?
And the best, most entertaining niche candidates usually come from the Republican party. Bob Dornan, Al Haig, Michelle Bachmann, Herman Cain, all provided me and my fellow political nerds with countless memories and Daily Show set pieces. 2016 may be especially prime for this sort of fodder, as the Republican party has a few side show debates to settle and lots of ways to express their contempt for Barack Hussein Obama. Think of each of these sub-categories as an ecological niche that will generate enough passion among enough people that several dopes will probably be able to raise sufficient funds to make the Iowa and New Hampshire ballots and one of the 10 or 11 podiums in those early going debates.
a. The Black Guy.
I've often been asked to quantify the extent to which conservative enmity towards Barack Obama is racially motivated. I usually surprise people by saying not very much. This is something of a quibble, because I do think that feelings about race shape the reaction of many older, conservative Americans to the President. But they also hated Clinton, whom they usually referred to as a Bubba, or a hill billy. And Carter was a bumpkin Peanut farmer. Kennedy was a Harvard elitists. Roosevelt was a traitor to his class. My point is that every President is spoken of by his opponents in superficially nasty ways. With this President, race, and a vague sense of foreignness, are the handiest proxies.
But it really pisses off people to be called racist. And there is a segment of the population that would just love to prove how non-racist they are by publicly supporting a black candidate the next time around. And the GOP/Fox Noise Machine has a few models who ready to assume the Allen Keyes/Herman Cain mantle and run with it.
1. Allen West (55). This guy loves to tell you how patriotic he is but he might have an even greater love for assuring white conservatives that they are right to question the President's patriotism and civility. (Never mind how unpatriotic and incivil that very notion is.) This guy is also a retired Lieutenant Colonel, so he pulls at all the right superficial strings of the Republican party base. And those folks will be more than happy to forget all their complaints about Barack Obama only being in Congress for 4 years. Allen West only has half that amount, but logical consistency is not exactly a big hang up for this demographic.
If he wins back his congressional seat in 2014, he'll probably skip the Presidential race. But he might have already figured out that Running for President is a lot easier, much more fun and a lot more profitable than being in Congress.
Report Card: Bankers: B Zealots: A Hawks: A- Isolationists: C-
10. Rick Perry (66). Well, he looks good for his age, doesn't he? And that's about the only really strong point in his favor. I think he might run because he wants to erase the memory of his horrific, car crash 2012 campaign. But he was such a lousy candidate last time that I think he will have a really hard time raising money this time around. No one wants to invest in someone so unlikely to win..
Report Card: Bankers: A- Zealots: A- Hawks: A- Isolationists: C
Well, that's another point in his favor-none of the big constituencies hate him. But he's just not a good candidate and I think he made the irreversible impression of being a moron to too many people. In theory, that's a disqualifier.
Well, that's another point in his favor-none of the big constituencies hate him. But he's just not a good candidate and I think he made the irreversible impression of being a moron to too many people. In theory, that's a disqualifier.
Chance of Running: 30% Chance of being the nominee: 0%
Veep Prospects: He kind of fits the Biden model of being older, gaffe-prone and being well known nationally. But I can't imagine what demographic or experiential advantage he would bring to the eventual ticket.
The Niche Candidates (The Really Fun Stuff.).
I have a pretty intense interest in hopeless Presidential candidacies. I remember once reading an article about George McGovern contemplating a third run for the Presidency in 1992. The gist of the article was that he had recently sold a bed and breakfast that he was running with his wife and was trying to decide between buying a smaller bed and breakfast somewhere else or running for President. What a great choice-downscale a small business or run to be the most important person in the world. It is a credit to Senator McGovern that he chose the former.
Running for President is now it's own reward. Mike Huckabee turned his 2008 campaign into a comfortable life as a media personality. Dennis Kucinich is employed by Fox News solely because he got flogged in a few Democratic presidential attempts. And appearing on stage with actual contenders is good for your lecture fees and gives your grandchildren something to put on their college applications. "Assistant Regional Coordinator for Young Voter Outreach" sounds pretty nifty, doesn't it?
And the best, most entertaining niche candidates usually come from the Republican party. Bob Dornan, Al Haig, Michelle Bachmann, Herman Cain, all provided me and my fellow political nerds with countless memories and Daily Show set pieces. 2016 may be especially prime for this sort of fodder, as the Republican party has a few side show debates to settle and lots of ways to express their contempt for Barack Hussein Obama. Think of each of these sub-categories as an ecological niche that will generate enough passion among enough people that several dopes will probably be able to raise sufficient funds to make the Iowa and New Hampshire ballots and one of the 10 or 11 podiums in those early going debates.
a. The Black Guy.
I've often been asked to quantify the extent to which conservative enmity towards Barack Obama is racially motivated. I usually surprise people by saying not very much. This is something of a quibble, because I do think that feelings about race shape the reaction of many older, conservative Americans to the President. But they also hated Clinton, whom they usually referred to as a Bubba, or a hill billy. And Carter was a bumpkin Peanut farmer. Kennedy was a Harvard elitists. Roosevelt was a traitor to his class. My point is that every President is spoken of by his opponents in superficially nasty ways. With this President, race, and a vague sense of foreignness, are the handiest proxies.
But it really pisses off people to be called racist. And there is a segment of the population that would just love to prove how non-racist they are by publicly supporting a black candidate the next time around. And the GOP/Fox Noise Machine has a few models who ready to assume the Allen Keyes/Herman Cain mantle and run with it.
1. Allen West (55). This guy loves to tell you how patriotic he is but he might have an even greater love for assuring white conservatives that they are right to question the President's patriotism and civility. (Never mind how unpatriotic and incivil that very notion is.) This guy is also a retired Lieutenant Colonel, so he pulls at all the right superficial strings of the Republican party base. And those folks will be more than happy to forget all their complaints about Barack Obama only being in Congress for 4 years. Allen West only has half that amount, but logical consistency is not exactly a big hang up for this demographic.
If he wins back his congressional seat in 2014, he'll probably skip the Presidential race. But he might have already figured out that Running for President is a lot easier, much more fun and a lot more profitable than being in Congress.
Report Card: Bankers: B Zealots: A Hawks: A- Isolationists: C-
Chance of Running: 50% Chance of being the nominee: 0%
Veep Prospects: None.
2. Ben Carson (65). This guy became famous by lecturing the President at a Prayer Breakfast. The perfect blend of piety and presumption. He touches a lot of the same bases as Col. West, but has never run for anything, and there is, believe it or not, an art and skill to this process. He will probably put out the feelers and rattle the cup but he might decide not to run, unless he is simply addicted to the attention that Sean Hannity currently gives him.
Report Card: Bankers: C Zealots: A Hawks: B Isolationists: D
2. Ben Carson (65). This guy became famous by lecturing the President at a Prayer Breakfast. The perfect blend of piety and presumption. He touches a lot of the same bases as Col. West, but has never run for anything, and there is, believe it or not, an art and skill to this process. He will probably put out the feelers and rattle the cup but he might decide not to run, unless he is simply addicted to the attention that Sean Hannity currently gives him.
Report Card: Bankers: C Zealots: A Hawks: B Isolationists: D
Chance of Running: 25% Chance of being the nominee: 0%
Veep Prospects: None.
b. The War Hawks.
1. John Bolton (68). This guy just can't wait to get on stage and tell us all how smart he is and how scary Iran is and how reckless Barack Obama is and how wonderful Israel is and all sorts of things that no one is especially clamoring to hear. But I think he's serious, because he recently invested in a toupee that matches his moustache. I desperately want this man to run for President, because he will put the rest of the field in the position of forcing them to agree with really stupid, reckless, arrogant things.
Report Card: Bankers: B+ Zealots: B+ Hawks: A+ Isolationists: F
b. The War Hawks.
1. John Bolton (68). This guy just can't wait to get on stage and tell us all how smart he is and how scary Iran is and how reckless Barack Obama is and how wonderful Israel is and all sorts of things that no one is especially clamoring to hear. But I think he's serious, because he recently invested in a toupee that matches his moustache. I desperately want this man to run for President, because he will put the rest of the field in the position of forcing them to agree with really stupid, reckless, arrogant things.
Report Card: Bankers: B+ Zealots: B+ Hawks: A+ Isolationists: F
Chance of Running: 55% Chance of being the nominee: 0%
Veep Prospects: None.
2. Peter King (72). This guy has actually already publicly state that he is running for President. He's running to grind two axes, one against Al Qaeda for being the bad kind of terrorists. (Only Irish Catholics are the good kind.) And the other is against the Tea Party for not understanding that government spending is sometimes good and for being insufficiently vigilant against the bad (non-Irish Catholic) kinds of terrorists.
Report Card: Bankers: B+ Zealots: A- Hawks: A Isolationists: F
2. Peter King (72). This guy has actually already publicly state that he is running for President. He's running to grind two axes, one against Al Qaeda for being the bad kind of terrorists. (Only Irish Catholics are the good kind.) And the other is against the Tea Party for not understanding that government spending is sometimes good and for being insufficiently vigilant against the bad (non-Irish Catholic) kinds of terrorists.
Report Card: Bankers: B+ Zealots: A- Hawks: A Isolationists: F
Chance of Running: 75% Chance of being the nominee: 0%
Veep Prospects: None.
c. The Woman.
In thinking of this field as an ecological niche, there is a glaring lack of likely female candidates. The likely Democratic nominee is a woman and the Republican establishment is painfully aware that they need to do better among women next time around. So there is room for someone to make some hay in this slot. But who?
Sarah Palin is too lazy to run. Condi Rice is too liberal to be a plausible candidate, not withstanding her appeal to some of the above-mentioned crowds. There are two female candidates who are worth considering, although they probably each have a better chance of being the vice-presidential pick than the presidential nominee.
1. Kelly Ayotte (48). The hardcore base hates her, because she occasionally makes deals with the Democrats, usually in company with McCain and Graham. It's hard to imagine her winning the nomination, but she has at times played the game with the right buzz words (Read: Benghazi) to keep her street cred among the crazy crowd. She probably can get enough support to be a plausible candidate and the fact that she is from New Hampshire could muck up the race by making Iowa and South Carolina much more important.
Report Card: Bankers: B+ Zealots: B Hawks: B+ Isolationists: C+c. The Woman.
In thinking of this field as an ecological niche, there is a glaring lack of likely female candidates. The likely Democratic nominee is a woman and the Republican establishment is painfully aware that they need to do better among women next time around. So there is room for someone to make some hay in this slot. But who?
Sarah Palin is too lazy to run. Condi Rice is too liberal to be a plausible candidate, not withstanding her appeal to some of the above-mentioned crowds. There are two female candidates who are worth considering, although they probably each have a better chance of being the vice-presidential pick than the presidential nominee.
1. Kelly Ayotte (48). The hardcore base hates her, because she occasionally makes deals with the Democrats, usually in company with McCain and Graham. It's hard to imagine her winning the nomination, but she has at times played the game with the right buzz words (Read: Benghazi) to keep her street cred among the crazy crowd. She probably can get enough support to be a plausible candidate and the fact that she is from New Hampshire could muck up the race by making Iowa and South Carolina much more important.
Chance of Running: 25% Chance of being the nominee: 1%
Veep Prospects: Very strong. She comes from a swing state (albeit a small one) and if the Republicans are facing Hillary in the general election, than she might provide the right boost and/or cover against perceptions of gender bias.
2. Susana Martinez (57). I haven't followed her closely but I know she gave a very well-received speech at the 2012 Republican convention. She's a bit of a cipher but there's no reason I know of to keep her from running.
Report Card: Bankers: B Zealots: B Hawks: B Isolationists: B
Chance of Running: 20% Chance of being the nominee: 1%
Veep Prospects. Also strong. Barack Obama won New Mexico by wide margins twice. But it was a very close state in both of Bush's elections. (He won it in 2004; lost it to Gore by 300 votes in 2000.) Her ethnic and gender appeal also makes her attractive.
IV. The Field.
We are still more than two years away from the first votes being cast. I'm sure that at least one actual candidate has not been mentioned yet. There's never been a senator or governor who didn't see a President looking back at him in the mirror. And there could be a General or Admiral or talk show host who decides to go for it too. But this list is everyone that's on my radar so far. I'm sure I'll do updates from time to time. I once thought Mike Huckabee would be a good candidate for the Republicans but he seems way more happy being a talking head than having to Govern.
But someone not listed on this page will at least make onto the stage for the early debates. And I'm sure he'll be good for a few laughs.
IV. The Field.
We are still more than two years away from the first votes being cast. I'm sure that at least one actual candidate has not been mentioned yet. There's never been a senator or governor who didn't see a President looking back at him in the mirror. And there could be a General or Admiral or talk show host who decides to go for it too. But this list is everyone that's on my radar so far. I'm sure I'll do updates from time to time. I once thought Mike Huckabee would be a good candidate for the Republicans but he seems way more happy being a talking head than having to Govern.
But someone not listed on this page will at least make onto the stage for the early debates. And I'm sure he'll be good for a few laughs.
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