I haven't really written anything on this blog about any midterm elections. They haven't proven very exciting, which means it will be a low turnout election, which always favors the Republicans. People with something to lose are more likely to vote in off-years, and Republicans skew towards the demographics that have something to lose, if say congress raised the income taxes on the top brackets.
I. ENDORSEMENTS:
But here are a handful of the races that I feel most strongly about.
1. Paul Davis for Governor of Kansas. "What's the Matter With Kansas" has been a recurring question in American politics ever since Thomas Frank wrote a book with that title to make the point that lots of people vote Republican even when it is against their own self-interest. The current governor of Kansas, Sam Brownback epitomizes this dynamic. He is a zealot for Catholicism and supply-side economics. The first is largely his business but the latter has resulted in policies so Fubar that hundreds of Republican office holders have endorsed his democratic rival.
Tomorrow night is likely to be a good night for the GOP but a win here will at least expose the great Republican lie that cutting taxes is always popular and always successful. That's why I list this race first. Nate Silver gives Davis an 82% chance of winning.
2. Pat Quinn for Governor of Illinois. All politics is local and so this race means a lot to me. Bruce Rauner has a reasonable chance (34% per Nate Silver) of winning this race. I'm putting his opponent Bruce Rauner has a reasonable chance (34% per Nate Silver) of winning this race. Pat Quinn this high on my list for two reasons-he's a good man, and I know that a win by his opponent will lead to huge tax cuts that are not matched by comparable spending cuts. Quinn passed substantial tax hikes and spending cuts a few years ago and he will likely leave them in place. Rauner's campaign is predicated on repealing that increase and cutting spending. But here's the catch: there's no way he could get the votes for the spending cuts from a legislature that will still have large democratic majority. But he will find enough Democrats who will go along with the tax cuts, because they will think its smart politics. The result will be a fiscal avalanche of debt. We can't afford that, so I'm going to vote for Quinn.
3. No to Mandatory GMO Labels in Oregon and Colorado. This may seem like a niche issue but it's not. Vermont recently became the first state to require food companies to label foods that contain ingredients that have been genetically engineered. in a laboratory rather than through selective breeding. There is simply no scientific evidence that these foods are any more dangerous than "conventional" foods. Requiring labels will create a false impression that there is something dangerous about those products. It will also increase the cost of food by making food manufacturers segregated their source ingredients for reasons that have nothing to do with food safety.
But the reason I put this food so high on the list is that it has an enormous impact on world health. Genetic modification of food sources holds great promise for feeding the world even as climate change wreaks its havoc on the world in the coming decades. Research into creating "Golden Rice", the name used to describe rice enhanced with Vitamin A could improve the health of the hundreds of millions of children in Asia whose diets are dominated by rice. Making the products more expensive (and therefore less profitable) will lead to fewer dollars being spent on the research that could lead to these advancements.
4. Bruce Braley for United States Senator in Iowa. I highlight this race because it will be very difficult for the Democrats to retain the Senate if they don't win this race. Until this morning I haven't paid a lot of attention to this election and just assumed that the Republican nominee, Joni Ernst, was just a run of the mill hack. But this morning I began my day by reading this interaction between her and a reporter:
ERNST: [Obama] is just standing back and letting things happen, he is reactive rather than proactive. With Ebola, he's been very hands off."
REPORTER: What should he have done about Ebola? One person in America has Ebola."
ERNST: OK, you're the press, you're giving me your opinion.
REPORTER: It's not an opinion. Only one person in America has it."
Oi vey.
5. Yes to Minimum Wage Increases in Alaska, Nebraska, South Dakota and Arkansas: All will pass. I just hope the margins are huge so that Democrats will learn the obvious lesson: liberal economic policies are popular even in deep red states.
II. PREDICTIONS:
If you've ever had the misfortune of being stuck in a political conversation with me you know that one of my biggest pet peeves is that there are virtually no consequences for political pundits that make terrible predictions. A personal favorite of this phenomenon is that in December 2006 William Kristol predicted, "Barack Obama is not going to beat Hillary Clinton in a single Democratic primary. I'll predict that right now." He still appears regularly on Fox News and the Sunday morning network shows. And people take him seriously, no matter how often he is wrong.
But you can't through mud at the Dick Morris Class if you don't make some predictions of your own. So here goes mine:
A. The House of Representatives.
Did you know that there are 435 House Seats up for election tomorrow? The most depressing fact in politics is that none of these 435 races have received more than a whisper of national media attention.In 2012 the Democrats "won" the national pop vote by a little over one point, but only won 201 races, while Republicans won 234. This is the shameful result of the gerrymandering done by Republicans after they got to redraw the state maps because they won the last midterm election in a wave. The polling average this time has the Republicans up by 2.2%. I think that will be enough for the GOP to net 10 seats, more than wiping out the 8 that they lost during the 2012 election.
B. The Senate.
The Democrats start the night with 55 seats, when you include the two independents who caucus with them. But the Democrats are defending 21 seats and the Republicans are only defending 15. Moreover twelve of those Republican seats, but just nine of the Democratic seats are completely safe for the incumbent party. That leaves the Democrats protecting 12 seats and the Republicans only have to worry about three.
Vulnerable Republican Seats (All three of them):
i. The Republican will in Kentucky, big.
ii. The Independent will win in Kansas by 3 points.
iii. Georgia will go to a run-off, with the Republican getting 48%, the Democrat getting 45% and the Libertarian will get 7%.
Vulnerable Democratic Seats:
The Republicans can bank on winning in Montana, Vest Virginia and South Dakota, very red states where Democratic incumbents are not running for re-election. Only Minnesota looks safe for the incumbent, Al Franken. I also believe the Republicans will win in Arkansas and Colorado. That means they have to win just one of the six truly close Democratic seats to win a majority. Here are my predictions on those:
i. Louisiana will go to a run off.
ii. The Democrat will win in NH, NC and Alaska.
iii. The Republican will win in Iowa and Colorado.
That leaves the Republicans with 52 seats and good prospects in 2 more Southern Red States. But the night is not without hope for the Democrats. Which leads me to....
C. Governors.
I think the Democrats have fielded a strong slate here and they will net three governor's mansions tomorrow. Here are my predictions for the close races with party switches in bold.
i. The Democrats win in:
Connecticut:by 1.
Maine by 2.
Colorado by 1
Florida by 3.
Illinois by 4
Rhode Island by 5
Kansas by 3
Pennsylvania by 12
ii. The Republican will win in:
Michigan by 1
Wisconsin by 2
Massachussetts by 3
Georgia by 4.
Arizona by 6
And in the closest race of the night, Alaska will elect independent Bill Walker by 2.029 votes. (The less I know about a race, the more specific I like to be in my predictions.)
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