Second GOP Debate Preview

For the past several months I have been intending to write a preview of next year's general election. But this Republican primary is just too entertaining to not obsess on their sideshow. Their second debate is tomorrow night and I wanted to update my forecast before this blessed event. But first a few observations about The Greatest Show on Earth

What We Have Learned About the 2016 Electorate.

1. The Fox News Effect is Real.  For seven years the yammering faces of Fox News have been selling their audience a steady stream of anger and vitriol directed towards the President and sometimes toward the Republican establishment. The audience bought it. And now the closest proximity to this product in the field is Donald Trump.  A frequent contributor to Fox & Friends, Trump has merely taken his shtick to the competitive field. And the same people are buying it.  

The most entertaining thing on television is watching Fox personalities like Charles Krauthamer and George Will act completely perplexed by Trump's domination of the field. They seem to legitimately not understand why the same people who watch their shows are enamored with the idea of a brash jerk who likes to insult people and offer simplistic solutions to all the world's problems. It's like they didn't know O'Reilly and Hannity have shows on their channel.  If Trump is the Monster of this election cycle, then Rupert Murdoch is its Doctor Frankenstein.

2.  Trump's Citizens United Jujitsu is Pure Brilliance. The biggest problem in the American political system was created by the Supreme Court just a few years ago, when they essentially deregulated Super PACs. The political process is now dominated by ever-larger donations from an ever-small class of extremely rich people.  The problem seemed to favor the Republican party who therefore had no incentive to do anything to reverse it. But they may soon be regretting that because Donald Trump's number one talking point has been that he is immune to the obvious corruption created by this system. He's self-financing his campaign and he does not have a Super PAC.  His number one talking point is stating the obvious: the rest of the field is compromised by these donations and they enter office under a cloud of malfeasance for all the favors they owe people.

Despair is the growing mood surrounding this election. But if you're the optimistic sort, then you might want to ponder the possibility that Trump mania just might convince the Republican party that unlimited donations by a tiny class of oligarchs is not the way to run a democracy. Who knows, maybe they will even agree to some non-trivial reforms. But only if they get their ass kicked first. 

3. The Republican Base Hates the Republican Establishment. At the start of the primary season I thought three candidates had clear, reasonable paths to the nomination: Rubio, Walker and Bush. Nate Silver agreed with my assessment, saying that each of these three candidates had approximately 25% chance of being the nominee, with the remaining quarter spread out among the field.  The most recent polling in Iowa and New Hampshire have all of these men stuck in the mid single digits. Some polls have them getting 12 or 13 percent...combined. (The most recent national poll has Scott Walker at just 2 percent; Bush and Rubio are tied at six.)

Trump's rise is only party explained by his incredibly brash persona. The second layer of his popularity is explained by his ability to whip up the base's emotions without committing to some of the really stupid aspects of Republican dogma. He's willing to say things about taxes, healthcare and even the Iran deal that would get Rubio, Walker or Bush killed by the right-wing talking heads.  The path forward is very long and filled with booby traps. It is unlikely that Trump will navigate them all safely.  But it's a lot more likely than anyone other than Trump himself could have forecast just 60 or 90 days ago.  

4. Hillary is still a lousy candidate but also still the heavy favorite to win the election.

The Questions I Would Ask.

If I were a panelist and had the opportunity to ask the candidates one question each, I would ask the following (in rough order of polling status):

1. Donald Trump.  You have indicated a willingness to raise income tax rates on wealthy Americans. If so, what is the lowest income amount that you would consider raising rates on. (Hopefully he'll give some spectacular Lucille Bluth answer like "How much can one banana cost, ten dollars?)

2. Ben Carson.  Doctor Carsson, Governor Jerry Brown of California recently sent you a flash drive filled with information about the evidence for climate change.  Have you reviewed that evidence and what is your assessment of its merits?  (I'd make his title sound like Tommy Lee Jones announcing the manhunt for "Doctor" Richard Kimble.)

3. Jeb Bush.  You recently announced a tax plan. Outside experts have calculated that 53% of these cuts will benefit the wealthiest 1% of society. Is that enough?

4. Marco Rubio.  You seem like a polite young man. Say something nice about Hillary Clinton.

5. Ted Cruz. You went to Princeton and Harvard Law School. Shouldn't you know better?

6.  Mike Huckabee. Do you believe the first amendment of the constitution applies equally to Christianity and other religions and why not?

7. Carly Fiorina.  The value of HP stock surged by three billion dollars when your resignation was announced. Why was Wall Street so glad to see you go?

8. John Kasich. You are one very few Republican governors who accepted an expansion of Medicaid under Obamacare. Has this decision benefited Ohio and would you as President encourage other states to expand Medicaid further?

9.  Rand Paul.  Would you be willing to make any reduction to the foreign aid that the United States gives to Israel?

10. Scott Walker. Do you think your anti-union policies will be a hindrance to the Republican party in the general election if you are the nominee?

11. Chris Christie.  You once behaved decently toward the President of the United States during a major natural disaster. One a scale of 9 to 10, how much do you regret that decision?

And no, I'm not wasting my time on questions for the kiddie table debate.

Without further, ado, I spill out a little of my 40 for Rick Perry's Historic 17th place finish and give you this:

 Updated Forecast. 

Candidate	Pre 1st debate	Post 1st Debate	Pre 2nd Debate	Change
Trump	2	1	8	7
Bush	34	31	24	-7
Walker	32	29	22	-7
Rubio	23	28	26	-2
Huckabee	3	3	1	-2
Santorum	1	1	1	0
Paul	2	1	1	0
Cruz	1	1	2	1
Kasich	1	2	6	4
Carson	0	0	3	3
Christie	0	0	0	0
Jindal	0	0	0	0
Fiorina	0	2	3	1
Graham	0	0	0	0
Perry	0	0	X	--
Pataki	0	0	0	0
Gilmore	0	0	0	0
The Field	1	1	3	2

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