A Fairly Confident Prediction of a Pretty Modest Success

I am moderately optimistic about the Democrats' prospects in tomorrow's midterm elections. I think it is likely that they will win back the House of Representatives. I do not expctu change in the senate but they are more likely to loose one or two seats (net) than to win the 2 that they would need to control that chamber. They will also win a lot of important governor's races, take control of various state legislatures and pass some important statewide referenda. But I do not anticipate a true wave elections.  I think the story on election even is that both bases are energives and will turn out in large numbers.  I think that genuine swing voters will favor the Democrats but not in overwhelming numers like they did in 2006. 

POSSIBLE REPORT CARDS.

I will make specific predictions in races below. But I think it's helpful to think of what the narrative will be on Wednesday morning. How will the Democrats gains be judged?  There are a lot of moving parts here, with 435 house races, 34 senate races and thousands of state and local elections. But the story will be driven by who controls congress and by what margin.  A handful of governor's races will also get national coverage, and they might be thought of as tie breakers for how to grade the night. Here are a few broad scenarios by which the night can be assessed after the votes are counted. 

F Scencarios.  The Democrats most important goal is to win control of at least one house of congress. That means the party will have subpoena power and the ability to introduce legislation and provide meaningful insight of the Trump administration. If the Democrats don't win either the House or Senate tomorrow, they deserve an F grade. (And the country will be F'd in our own way for the next 24 months.)

D Scenarios.  If the Democrats win one house but underperform in the other, then they have done the bare minimum to stay relevant to government. The most likely D scenario is a gain of 25 seats, giving them a razor-thin margin in the House, but they lose several of their senate seats and don't pick up any GOP seats.  So about 221 in the house and 46 or 47 in the Senate. Awful, but not technically a complete failure.

C Scenarios.  If the Dems win at least 30 seats and don't lose more than one senate seat (net), they will get a gentleman's C. (C+ if they do well in the governor's race.)

B Scenarios.  A lot of the advanced analytics types have the most likely outcome for the Dems being about +37 in the House and -1 in the senate.  I think that's a solid B. (B+ if they hold even in the senate.)

A Scenarios.  So what makes a wave? The biggest recent was the 2010 Tea Party election when the Dems lost 63 seats. But they started that year with 256. The GOP only has 241 at the moment. So +48 would match that end result. I think anything over 40 would be a wave and it probably means picking up at least one senate seat.  So let's call this 235 in the House and a 50/50 Senate.

A+ Scenario:  This is easy-the House by more than a handful of seats and the Senate. But to really earn the +, we'd have to see some really awful Republicans lose. It's not an A+night if Ted Cruz is re-elected. Beating Steve King or Dan Rohrbacher would be nice cherries on top too. Stace Abrams winning in Georgia would also be a profound outcome for the party

SENATE FORECAST

The good people at 538.com have crunched the numbers and the most likely outcome is the Dems losing one seat, net. I tend to agree with that but my individual forecasts are a little more gut and gumption than arithmatic. There are 11 races that I think will determine the senate, and this is my non-scientific expectation of how they will go.

A.  One Likely Loss. The Dems will lose North Dakota. It's not a done deal, but I think they can only win in a wave.

B.  Two True Toss-ups. The Dems will split Missouri and Florida.  Nate Silver's numbers have them both leaning Dem but I think that's a tough two-fer. Nelson in Florida has better numbers, so if I had to guess that's the one we keep. But I will never, ever trust Florida in an election. So let's call it a split.

C. Three Lean Democrats.  The Dems will take 2 out of 3 among Indiana, Arizona and Nevada.  If it's a wave, they will sweep all three but I'm not that confident.  I think the Dems best chance here is Indiana but that's far from guaranteed. And they could win either race out west but my gut is saying split.

D. Long Shots. The first three outcomes would put the Dems down one seat, for a 52-48 senate. That's my best and official bet. But there are at least three states that could provide upsets: The Dems could lose Montana, but I don't think they will. They could put an upset in Tennessee but I think they will come about 3 points shy there. Texas is hard for me to judge because I so badly want Ted Cruz to lose. I think the party ID fundamentals help him but I think that will be a 2 point race. 

The Dems can pull an inside straight and win the senate.  I think the most likely path to that is keeping MO, FL and IN, picking up both NV & AZ and then winning a substantial upset in TN or TX. The odds of drawing anside straight are about 12 to one. That sounds about right.  Official Prediction: Dems lose one seat (net).

Note-Mississippi is almost certainly going to require a run-off election. But I think the Dems will have a tough time winning that, especially if the seat is decisive for control of the senate or even to force Pence to break a 50/50 tie. For tonight's purposes, I'm counting MS as an L. But we'll take that one up again on Wednesday.

HOUSE FORECAST

I'm a shade pessimistic relative to FiveThirtyEight and the other serious forecasters. I think Trump's people will show up because they think the economy is proof that they were right about him. They also like the fact that he's a dick and many of them are more than a little afraid of immigrants. I don't see the wave happening. But there should be enough suburban moderate districts that went Republican last time because the voters wanted a Republican House to be a check on President Hillary Clinton.  Official prediction: Dems gain 33 seats. 

GOVERNORS FORECAST

The Democrats will take back a lot of governor's mansions that they nevers hould have lost. Illinois is the most obvious. Michigan will also follow suit. So should Wisconsin, which will be an especially sweet result. I think Florida looks good.  I also think the Democrats will win the Kansas race but Kansas has broken my heart before. Georgia and Ohio are going to be very close. Just like the MO and FL senate races, I expect a split but I'm not sure which way. If the Dems win both, then this is a wave election.  

Official Prediction: Dems gain 8 states. (But Republicans lose 7 becaue they will win AK, which currently has an independent governor.)

THE AIRING OF THE GRIEVEANCES, GREAT AND SMALL. 

These are the 10 results that I want the most and the percentage of likelihood I assign for each.

1. A Democratic House (75%)

2. Ted Cruz losing to Beo O'Rourke  (22%)

3. Stacey Abrams winning the GA governor's race. (48%)

4. Kris Kloubach losing the Kansas governor's race. (52%)

5. Steve King losing Iowa 4th  (30%)

6. Devin Nunes losing his seat in California 22nd. (10%)

7. Restoration of felony voting rights in Florida (61%)

8. Andrew Gillum winning FL governor's race. (55%)

9. Scott Walker losing WI governor's race. (70%)

10. Claire McCaskill winning MO senate race.(49%)

There you have it, folks. Nothing especially bold or daring.  I think the Dems will get the most important job done, but I don't think they will run up the score. The nation is still divided, but we have more to be pissed off about this time. Hopefully that nets a few senate upsets and we're having a party 24 hours from now.