On Friday afternoon, Alex Rodriguez announced that he is dropping his lawsuits against Major League Baseball and the players union. This means that he is accepting a one year suspension. He can return to play for the Yankees in 2015. He will be 3 months shy of his 40th birthday, having played just 44 games in a two year span.
So what did A-Rod get for his efforts? He now has three years left on his contract. He is set to earn $64 million dollars in guaranteed money during those years. By having the suspension reduced by 49 games, he will recoup $6.6 million dollars in 2015 salary. From that we should deduct his legal bills, which are surely substantial, but only a small fraction of what he saved already.
His savings could be much greater. Having an extra 1/3 of a season has improved his chances of receiving additional millions in bonuses. Rodriguez' contract contains a a series of $6,000,000 bonuses each time he moves up the career home run list. He currently has 654 career home runs. So the bonuses come due if he hits the remaining number of home runs:
- Six more, to tie Willie Mays
- 60 more, to tie Babe Ruth
- 101 more, to tie Hank Aaron
- 109 more, to pass Barry Bonds
It's almost certain that he will hit at least six more home runs, and that he would have even if the suspension was not reduced. In three seasons, even at his age, he has a reasonable chance of hitting 60. But it's possible that the extra 49 games, which will be played in the first of those 3 seasons, could make the difference of getting there.
The math for 3 full season is now pretty straight forward. He will pocket an additional $6M for averaging 20, 33.7 or 36.3 home runs. And additional 49 game suspension would have left him with 10 percent fewer games to earn these bonuses. The pro-rated averages to get the bonues in 437 games would be 22.2, 37.4 and 40.4.
Projecting the Bonuses.
There are several ways to project how many home runs A-Rod might hit in the remaining seasons of this contract. A-Rod will be 39,40 and 41 at the start of his remaining seasons. Let's look at how the men he is trying to pass performed in those seasons, and how much bonus money A-Rod will get for hitting the same number:
Barry Bonds (2004 to 2006): 45, 5, 26 for a total of 76. ($12 million)
Hank Aarron (1973 to 1975): 40, 20, 12 for a total of 72. ($12 million)
Babe Ruth (1934 to 1936: 22, 6, and 0 for a total of 28*. ($6 million.)
Willie Mays (1970 to 1972): 28,18, 8 for a total of 54. ($6 million)
Another useful number available to us is that A-Rod played in 44 of the Yankees last 53 games last year. He hit seven home runs. If he hits seven during his next 49, and those seven are enough to put him over a bonus threshold, then his appeal of the suspension just saved him an additional $6 million dollars. A-Rod's attorneys might have saved him close to $13 million dollars.
The Next A-Rod Controversy Could be Playing Time.
A-Rod is a talented and hard working man. He also has enormous financial incentives to hit as many home runs as possible when he gets back to the field. If he avoids major injuries in 2015 and 2016, it seems likely that he will hit at least 40 home runs. If he hits exactly that, he would enter the 2017 season needing 20 homes runs to collect an additional $6 million dollars for tying Babe Ruth.
Now if the Yankees are contending, and he is their best option at third base (or DH), he will get enough at bats to have a legitimate shot at it. But the really interesting moment could come late in that season if either the Yankees falter or they have a more promising player to put in his place in the line up. Keeping him out of the lineup could save the Yankees a ton of money. And unless something drastic changes in the next three years, management would not exactly be thrilled with the possibility of A-Rod passing the Bambino's place on the Home Run list. (Or breaking Babe's American league record of 708 home runs, if that's still in play.)
Fighting the Suspension Paid Off.
Alex Rodriguez already recovered nearly seven million dollars in salary by fighting the original 211 game suspension. It's quite possible that he will save an extra six million in home run bonus money. He could also recover smaller amounts of money by achieving other bonuses in 2015. (These range from ten grand for making the all-star game, 50 grand for finishing in the top ten of MVP voting, up to $1.5M for winning the MVP.) We'll never know exactly how much he spent on those legal bills, but it's safe to say that he got a good return on his investment.**
Perhaps most importantly, he was able to achieve this savings without having to testify under oath. He will be able to go on denying any wrong doing for the rest of his days. But knowing A-Rod, this is not the last of the controversy. That last controversy just might involve the Yankees trying to get him out of the door shy of his next home run bonus.
The biggest controversy might not involve money. If he comes back and has 3 relatively healthy seasons, he could hit another 90 home runs. He'll be 42 years old and less than 20 home runs shy of breaking the record. It seems likely that some team, will see his pursuit of the record, and his remaining production, a worthy investment. It is still possible that four years from now, we will have to refer to A-Rod as the Home Run King.
Foot notes.
*Ruth retired less than halfway through the 1935 season, having hit 6 home runs in just 72 at bats. He had no records or large bonuses to chase. If you include his last 3 full season, when he was one year younger than A-Rod will be, his total was 62, enough for an extra $6 million.)
The math for 3 full season is now pretty straight forward. He will pocket an additional $6M for averaging 20, 33.7 or 36.3 home runs. And additional 49 game suspension would have left him with 10 percent fewer games to earn these bonuses. The pro-rated averages to get the bonues in 437 games would be 22.2, 37.4 and 40.4.
Projecting the Bonuses.
There are several ways to project how many home runs A-Rod might hit in the remaining seasons of this contract. A-Rod will be 39,40 and 41 at the start of his remaining seasons. Let's look at how the men he is trying to pass performed in those seasons, and how much bonus money A-Rod will get for hitting the same number:
Barry Bonds (2004 to 2006): 45, 5, 26 for a total of 76. ($12 million)
Hank Aarron (1973 to 1975): 40, 20, 12 for a total of 72. ($12 million)
Babe Ruth (1934 to 1936: 22, 6, and 0 for a total of 28*. ($6 million.)
Willie Mays (1970 to 1972): 28,18, 8 for a total of 54. ($6 million)
Another useful number available to us is that A-Rod played in 44 of the Yankees last 53 games last year. He hit seven home runs. If he hits seven during his next 49, and those seven are enough to put him over a bonus threshold, then his appeal of the suspension just saved him an additional $6 million dollars. A-Rod's attorneys might have saved him close to $13 million dollars.
The Next A-Rod Controversy Could be Playing Time.
A-Rod is a talented and hard working man. He also has enormous financial incentives to hit as many home runs as possible when he gets back to the field. If he avoids major injuries in 2015 and 2016, it seems likely that he will hit at least 40 home runs. If he hits exactly that, he would enter the 2017 season needing 20 homes runs to collect an additional $6 million dollars for tying Babe Ruth.
Now if the Yankees are contending, and he is their best option at third base (or DH), he will get enough at bats to have a legitimate shot at it. But the really interesting moment could come late in that season if either the Yankees falter or they have a more promising player to put in his place in the line up. Keeping him out of the lineup could save the Yankees a ton of money. And unless something drastic changes in the next three years, management would not exactly be thrilled with the possibility of A-Rod passing the Bambino's place on the Home Run list. (Or breaking Babe's American league record of 708 home runs, if that's still in play.)
Fighting the Suspension Paid Off.
Alex Rodriguez already recovered nearly seven million dollars in salary by fighting the original 211 game suspension. It's quite possible that he will save an extra six million in home run bonus money. He could also recover smaller amounts of money by achieving other bonuses in 2015. (These range from ten grand for making the all-star game, 50 grand for finishing in the top ten of MVP voting, up to $1.5M for winning the MVP.) We'll never know exactly how much he spent on those legal bills, but it's safe to say that he got a good return on his investment.**
Perhaps most importantly, he was able to achieve this savings without having to testify under oath. He will be able to go on denying any wrong doing for the rest of his days. But knowing A-Rod, this is not the last of the controversy. That last controversy just might involve the Yankees trying to get him out of the door shy of his next home run bonus.
The biggest controversy might not involve money. If he comes back and has 3 relatively healthy seasons, he could hit another 90 home runs. He'll be 42 years old and less than 20 home runs shy of breaking the record. It seems likely that some team, will see his pursuit of the record, and his remaining production, a worthy investment. It is still possible that four years from now, we will have to refer to A-Rod as the Home Run King.
Foot notes.
*Ruth retired less than halfway through the 1935 season, having hit 6 home runs in just 72 at bats. He had no records or large bonuses to chase. If you include his last 3 full season, when he was one year younger than A-Rod will be, his total was 62, enough for an extra $6 million.)
**The web site for the law firm retained by A-Rod to fight his suspension is: http://www.tacopinalaw.com/
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