The Walking Diaspora (B Squad)

Note: Spoilers for the February 16th episode of The Walking Dead abound.

Last week I wrote a hurried post about the premiere episode for the second half of season four of the Walking Dead.  I put forth my general theory about the season-that the group was divided in four smaller groups and that each of these little groups had one person that had heard the mysterious radio signal while on the supply and medicines run at the veterinary college.  I further speculated that Rick and Karl would meet up with Michonne, perhaps when they head to the town where Morgan was holed up last season.

The only characters seen last week were Michonne, Rick and Karl.  And they did indeed meet up at the end, although much closer to the prison than Morgan's hideout.  The previews for this week suggest that we will be brought up to speed on the rest of the survivors.  Or as I call them, The B Squad.  (And yes Darryl, much like Willem Dafoe's character in the Life Aquatic with Steve Zissou, you're on the B Squad, but you're the B Squad Leader.)

A little bit of internet sleuthing has revealed some spoilers.  I do believe there is conclusive evidence that Tyrese saved Judith during the war with the Governor's parade of imbeciles.  The embedded video makes that case pretty strongly.  There are also rumors that the preview for the Latin American audience showed Tyrese cradling a baby.  So it's safe to say, Judith lives.

This creates perhaps the most interesting story line in the history of the Walking Dead.  There might be a genuine moment of happiness.  Wouldn't that be something?

I don't expect that will happen tonight.  I expect tonight to be a series of catch-ups with the various unaccounted for people, specifically.

• Tyrese is alone with Judith, it seems.  The first question I have is, why did he take her out of the baby carrier? It would have been much easier and faster to just grab that thing and run with it. It is, after all, a baby carrier.  He's going to need formula, stat.  There are also online rumors that a picture leaked showing Tyrese with Carol.  This would backup my earlier prediction that they would rendezvous before the rest of the group.  And of course Judith would help them make a natural family unit. Tyrese may or may not also be with the little girls that Carol had been taking care of.  A lot of pipe was laid between those girls and Carol earlier this season, so I expect them to meet up sooner than later.
• Beth and Darryl.  There's only one question about these two being alone in the woods.
• Glenn and the Bus Passengers.  Rumors abound that the bus runs into walkers.  I expect a lot of dead Red Shirts but I think Glenn will make it out okay.  And now that the virus is behind him, I think he'll become one of the main focal points of the rest of this season.
• Maggie, Sasha and Bob.  Obviously Maggie's focus is going to be reconnecting with Glenn and with finding Beth.  I think she's one of the smartest characters left on the show. So she's probably doomed.  Sasha and Bob seem likely to have their own sub story, although there's really nothing in their characters so far to explain what they have in common.  Any port in a zombie apocylpse, I guess.
• The final Internet reveal was that Tara (the lesbian sister of the governor's girlfriend Lilly) is still alive.  I'm not sure if Lilly is also alive, but the last time we saw her she was putting a bullet into the governor.  It would seem strange to waste the most important kill of this season on a glorified Red Shirt.  So I expect Lilly and Tara to both be alive, although I have no idea where they will fit in the grand scheme of things.

The Walking Diaspora

For the past 8 weeks I've been meaning to write a long post about what to expect in the 2nd half of season 4 of the Walking Dead.  I have 8 minutes left before the premier. So here goes nothing.

I think the most interesting thing about how the midseason finale is how certain characters were split up.  In particular I note that all 4 characters who heard the radio signal in the car are separated from one another:

1.  Michoone is by herself or possibly with the Governor's girlfriend. She also could be with Judith, but that will feel like a big cheat.

2. Darryl is with Beth.  Now that Hershel is dead and Carol is off the reservation, maybe he will make a borderline inappropriate play for her love. (Note: Emily Kinney the actress who plays Beth is 29 years old, but her character is only about 18 or 19.

3. Tyres is with the two little girls.  I have a prediction on this one: they will run into Carol.  Carol and Tyrese will spark a relationship of some kind, and eventually she will become tortured by whether or not to tell him about Karen.

4. Bob Stookey is with Maggie and Sasha.  They certainly dropped a heavy hint that Sasha and Bob might be pairing up but of course Maggie's main quest will be to get to Glenn.  Maybe they can rendezvous at the Waterfall that they were speaking about at the start of the midseason finale.  (How romantic.)

I suspect that each of these groups will eventually remember the radio signal, and head towards it.  This leaves Glenn and the Red Shirts on the bus, and Rick and Karl on their own.    It would make sense for Rick and Karl to head back to their hometown and hope to hideout with Morgan. This is doubly convenient since Michonne knows that location as well.

I want the show to take sometime with this story line.  I think it could be fun to watch all these groups make their back together.  And then of course everything will go to shit.  Because this is The Walking Dead and nothing good ever happens.

 

A-Rod Saved a Lot of Money.

On Friday afternoon, Alex Rodriguez announced that he is dropping his lawsuits against Major League Baseball and the players union.  This means that he is accepting a one year suspension.  He can return to play for the Yankees in 2015.  He will be 3 months shy of his 40th birthday, having played just 44 games in a two year span.

So what did A-Rod get for his efforts?  He now has three years left on his contract.  He is set to earn $64 million dollars in guaranteed money during those years.  By having the suspension reduced by 49 games, he will recoup $6.6 million dollars in 2015 salary.  From that we should deduct his legal bills, which are surely substantial, but only a small fraction of what he saved already.

His savings could be much greater.  Having an extra 1/3 of a season has improved his chances of receiving additional millions in bonuses.  Rodriguez' contract contains a a series of $6,000,000 bonuses each time he moves up the career home run list.  He currently has 654 career home runs.  So the bonuses come due if he hits the remaining number of home runs:

• Six more, to tie Willie Mays
• 60 more, to tie Babe Ruth
• 101 more, to tie Hank Aaron
• 109 more, to pass Barry Bonds

It's almost certain that he will hit at least six more home runs, and that he would have even if the suspension was not reduced.  In three seasons, even at his age, he has a reasonable chance of hitting 60.  But it's possible that the extra 49 games, which will be played in the first of those 3 seasons, could make the difference of getting there.

The math for 3 full season is now pretty straight forward.  He will pocket an additional $6M for averaging 20, 33.7 or 36.3 home runs.  And additional 49 game suspension would have left him with 10 percent fewer games to earn these bonuses.  The pro-rated averages to get the bonues in 437 games would be 22.2, 37.4 and 40.4.

Projecting the Bonuses.
There are several ways to project how many home runs A-Rod might hit in the remaining seasons of this contract.  A-Rod will be 39,40 and 41 at the start of his remaining seasons.  Let's look at how the men he is trying to pass performed in those seasons, and how much bonus money A-Rod will get for hitting the same number:

Barry Bonds (2004 to 2006): 45, 5, 26 for a total of 76.  ($12 million)
Hank Aarron (1973 to 1975): 40, 20, 12 for a total of 72.  ($12 million)
Babe Ruth (1934 to 1936: 22, 6, and 0 for a total of 28*.  ($6 million.)
Willie Mays (1970 to 1972): 28,18, 8 for a total of 54.  ($6 million)

Another useful number available to us is that A-Rod played in 44 of the Yankees last 53 games last year.  He hit seven home runs.  If he hits seven during his next 49, and those seven are enough to put him over a bonus threshold, then his appeal of the suspension just saved him an additional $6 million dollars.  A-Rod's attorneys might have saved him close to $13 million dollars.

The Next A-Rod Controversy Could be Playing Time.

A-Rod is a talented and hard working man.  He also has enormous financial incentives to hit as many home runs as possible when he gets back to the field.  If he avoids major injuries in 2015 and 2016, it seems likely that he will hit at least 40 home runs.  If he hits exactly that, he would enter the 2017 season needing 20 homes runs to collect an additional $6 million dollars for tying Babe Ruth.

Now if the Yankees are contending, and he is their best option at third base (or DH), he will get enough at bats to have a legitimate shot at it.  But the really interesting moment could come late in that season if either the Yankees falter or they have a more promising player to put in his place in the line up.  Keeping him out of the lineup could save the Yankees a ton of money.  And unless something drastic changes in the next three years, management would not exactly be thrilled with the possibility of A-Rod passing the Bambino's place on the Home Run list.  (Or breaking Babe's American league record of 708 home runs, if that's still in play.)

 Fighting the Suspension Paid Off.

Alex Rodriguez already recovered nearly seven million dollars in salary by fighting the original 211 game suspension.  It's quite possible that he will save an extra six million in home run bonus money.  He could also recover smaller amounts of money by achieving other bonuses in 2015.  (These range from ten grand for making the all-star game, 50 grand for finishing in the top ten of MVP voting, up to $1.5M for winning the MVP.)   We'll never know exactly how much he spent on those legal bills, but it's safe to say that he got a good return on his investment.**

Perhaps most importantly, he was able to achieve this savings without having to testify under oath. He will be able to go on denying any wrong doing for the rest of his days.  But knowing A-Rod, this is not the last of the controversy. That last controversy just might involve the Yankees trying to get him out of the door shy of his next home run bonus.

The biggest controversy might not involve money.  If he comes back and has 3 relatively healthy seasons, he could hit another 90 home runs.  He'll be 42 years old and less than 20 home runs shy of breaking the record.  It seems likely that some team, will see his pursuit of the record, and his remaining production, a worthy investment.  It is still possible that four years from now, we will have to refer to A-Rod as the Home Run King.

Foot notes.
*Ruth retired less than halfway through the 1935 season, having hit 6 home runs in just 72 at bats.  He had no records or large bonuses to chase.  If you include his last 3 full season, when he was one year younger than A-Rod will be, his total was 62, enough for an extra $6 million.)

**The web site for the law firm retained by A-Rod to fight his suspension is: http://www.tacopinalaw.com/