I. The Fundamentals.
This election is hard to handicap because the incumbent has unconventional strengths and historic weaknesses. For example, Donald Trump is generally unpopular. His current approval rating is about 43 percent. At an equivalent point in their presidencies, Barack Obama was at 45%. George W. Bush and Bill Clinton were in the 50s. But the economic news is more good than bad. Growth has slowed but the job market is solid and the stock market is performing well. It is possible that Trump's tariffs cost him a lot of votes in agricultural states but if the job market stays strong into the spring, then the economy will probably be a net benefit to him.
II. The Variables.
A lot can happen in 44 weeks.
1. Impeachment. It seems now that Impeachment will not result in removal from office. But it's also possible that more direct evidence of Trump's corrupt actions in Ukraine. That will hurt his polling, even if he gets a brief bump from his likely acquittal by the senate.
2. Foreign policy. Both Iran and North Korea have ramped up their agitation of Trump in recent weeks. North Korea has been dangling the possibility of new weapons testing. Iranian back militias have escalated their activity in Iraq. Trump responded with missile attacks on targets in Iraq. This was done over the objection of the Iraq government and resulted in massive protests at the American embassy in Baghdad.
Anything from a full on war with Iran to a withdrawal of all American troops from the region are possible. I say this because the person making these decisions is a reckless imbecile. If he thinks either of these options will help him win a second term, he will not hesitate to do either. The best hope for the world is for Donald Trump to believe that relative peace is in his own best interest. Fingers crossed.
3. The Democratic Nomination.There are two ways to read the polls so far. One is that the experienced popular moderate, Joe Biden has maintained first place over many months because he is well, experienced popular and moderate. The other way to look at is that Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders are both quite progressive candidates and their combined support is roughly equal to Biden's. If one of them emerges as the lefty challenger to Biden, then the race will be close.
III. The Forecast.
For our purposes, I will start the forecast assuming the Democratic nomination is a "Generic Democrat." My central thesis is that Trump won in 2016 because he turned out a lot of new and inconsistent voters. He was helped in this task by the fact that his opponent was very unpopular.
We start with the 2016 electoral map. Trump won 306 votes, Hillary 232. I believe that a generic Democrat should win back Pennsylvania (20 votes) and Michigan (16). That leave us with Democrat 268, two shy of enough to win.
If the race were held today, then the next president would be the candidate who wins Wisconsin. Wisconsin may be the new Florida. They did elect a Democratic governor in the blue wave of 2018, but just barely.
So here is my official 2020 electoral map:
So the official prediction is a punt. To be specific: Generic Democrat 268, Trump 260, Toss-up 10.
If Donald Trump wins Wisconsin, the Democrat will need to pull an upset somewhere else. Here are a few possibilities:
1. North Carolina
2. Arizona
3. Georgia
4. Nebraska 2nd Congressional District plus Maine's 2nd congressional district.
Any of these is possible but none are likely. The Democratic nominee will also need to defend Minnesota, New Hampshire, Nevada and Virginia.
IV. The Opponents.
As the nomination contests get under way, voters will be mindful of who can win the election. Here is how I would adjust the map if I knew that the nominee would be each of these people.
a Biden 278, Trump 234, Toss-up 26.
I think Biden would hold all of the Generic Democratic states and add WI. I would also move AZ and NC to too close to call.
b. Sanders 255, Trump 260, Toss-up 23.
I think Sanders would hold most of the Generic Democratic states, and he might win Wisconsin. But I don't really like him as a candidate in Virginia, so I move that to close-up.
c. Warren 248, Trump 260, Toss-up 30.
I think Warren will have a hard time in Pennsylvania, so I move it to toss-up. She might also struggle in Virginia, but I favor her slightly there.
d. Buttigieg 262, Trump 270, Toss-up 6.
I think Buttigieg will lose Wisconsin. And I don't think he can pull an upset in AZ, GA or NC. I also move NV to toss-up.
e. Bloomberg 219, Trump 303, Toss-up 16.
People do not understand how unpopular President Bloomberg would be in gun states. I think Trump wins Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Virginia. Michigan would be close.
f. Klobuchar 279, Trump 248, Toss-up 11.
I think she wins Wisconsin and Nebraska's 2nd congressional district. Arizona would be a toss-up.
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