It's been over a month since I updated my feelings on the Democratic candidates. We haven't really had a lot of news, but there have been three drop outs, so I thought I would do a quick update.
Bernie has had a good week of polling and that has translated into movement in the prediction markets. But I still consider Biden the favorite.
I have begun to realize that the early schedule makes this race hard to handicap. February has the first 4-Iowa, New Hampshire each spaced out by about a week. But then there is only three days between South Carolina and Super Tuesday. On March 3rd, there are 15 contests with 1,344 delegates. That schedule could favor Mike Bloomberg who is sitting out the first four states but has already been saturating the Super Tuesday states with advertisements.
That schedule might also cause some candidates to hang around even if they do poorly in the early states. Colorado and Minnesota both have primaries on that day. Amy Klobuchar and Michael Bennet might be tempted to hang around and see if they can vacuum up some delegates by hanging on for a few more days.
Here is my very early predictions for the February contests:
Iowa 1. Sanders 2. Biden 3. Buttigieg
New Hampshire: 1. Biden 2. Sanders. 3. Warren
Nevada: 1. Sanders 2. Biden. 3. Warren
South Carolina 1. Biden 2. Sanders 3. Warren
If anything close to this holds, then Biden, Sanders, Warren and Bloomberg can all claim viability going into Super Tuesday.
There are not a lot of big changes in the rankings, but the three drop outs did cause some ripples.
Bernie has had a good week of polling and that has translated into movement in the prediction markets. But I still consider Biden the favorite.
I have begun to realize that the early schedule makes this race hard to handicap. February has the first 4-Iowa, New Hampshire each spaced out by about a week. But then there is only three days between South Carolina and Super Tuesday. On March 3rd, there are 15 contests with 1,344 delegates. That schedule could favor Mike Bloomberg who is sitting out the first four states but has already been saturating the Super Tuesday states with advertisements.
That schedule might also cause some candidates to hang around even if they do poorly in the early states. Colorado and Minnesota both have primaries on that day. Amy Klobuchar and Michael Bennet might be tempted to hang around and see if they can vacuum up some delegates by hanging on for a few more days.
Here is my very early predictions for the February contests:
Iowa 1. Sanders 2. Biden 3. Buttigieg
New Hampshire: 1. Biden 2. Sanders. 3. Warren
Nevada: 1. Sanders 2. Biden. 3. Warren
South Carolina 1. Biden 2. Sanders 3. Warren
If anything close to this holds, then Biden, Sanders, Warren and Bloomberg can all claim viability going into Super Tuesday.
There are not a lot of big changes in the rankings, but the three drop outs did cause some ripples.
A. The Top Tier (The Front Runners).
1. Joe Biden
2. Bernie Sanders (Up from 3)
3. Elzabeth Warren (Down from 2)
4. Mike Bloomberg (Up from 6)
B. Tier Two (The Alternatives).
5. Pete Butigieg (Down from 4)
6. Amy Klobuchar (Down from 5)
6. Amy Klobuchar (Down from 5)
C. Long Shots
7. Michael Bennet (Up from 8)
8. John Delanay. (Up from 10)
9. Deval Patrick. (Up from 11)
D. Novelty Candidates.
11. Andrew Yang (Up from 12)
11. Tom Steyer (Up from 13)
12. Tulsi Gabbard (Up from 14)
III. The Power Rankings, Take Ten.
These are just my personal preferences among the remaining candidates.
1. Amy Klobuchar
2. Michael Bennet
3. Joe Biden (Up from 4)
4. Pete Buttigieg (Down from 3)
2. Michael Bennet
3. Joe Biden (Up from 4)
4. Pete Buttigieg (Down from 3)
5. Elizabeth Warren
6. John Delaney (Down from 8)
7. Bernie Sanders (Up from 9)
8. Tom Steyer (Up from 10)
9. Deval Patrick (Up from 11)
6. John Delaney (Down from 8)
7. Bernie Sanders (Up from 9)
8. Tom Steyer (Up from 10)
9. Deval Patrick (Up from 11)
10. Michael Bloomberg (Up from 12)
11 Andrew Yang (Up from 13)
12. Tulsi Gabbard (Up from 15)
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