There are 199 days until the election. I think that Joe Biden is a modest favorite to win, but he will need to run a good race in order to overcome the Republican's built-in advantage in the Electoral College.
I. The Fundamentals.
Fifteen weeks ago I wrote that this election was unique because we had an unpopular president running for re-election in a solid economy. That is no longer true. He's slightly less popular and the economy is cratering.
His campaign will of course be based on the idea that this economic collapse was not his fault. And in a strict, literal sense, it's not entirely his fault. The COVID-19 virus happened to come along just as the primary season was getting in full swing. The election will largely be a referendum on his response to it. He should not feel confident of such a contest.
II. The Variables.
A lot can happen in 29 weeks.
1. The Death Count. As of this writing, 38,664 Americans have died from COVID-19. There have been some glimmers of positive news but I would guess we have not quite hit the peak of deaths curve yet. If I had to bet, I think the death tally will be over 75,000 by election day. It could be significantly higher than that. Trump is clearly hoping to run on a "relatively good" body county. If it's somehow under 60,000, he might be able to claim that with a straight face.
These projections are of course ghoulish. And I claim no expertise in the field. But Trump is a master of spin and he will predicate his campaign on one of several talking points, The main options are as follows, in order of increasing panic:
a. A lot more would have died if we did nothing. (He can probably use that even if 200K die, but each dead body makes it weaker.
b. Our response was better than other countries. Here he will have a lot of places to choose from. At the moment the only clear pattern I see is that Asian/Oceanic countries are having better outcomes than us. Some European countries are doing better than us but Spain and Italy seem to be doing about the same as us. The UK might end up being worse and Germany is not out of the woods yet, either.
c. The death toll is bad but a complete economic shut down would have been worse.
d. The death toll is bad but it's the governors' fault.
e. Blame China!!!!!
2. The Democratic Ticket. Joe Biden was a safe choice, but he's not without baggage. If things get back to normalish by September, they will try to attack him for a variety of petty offenses. If things are still bad, they will claim that Biden is too old to be trusted in this crisis.
3. October Surprises. The world is a tumultuous place and a lot can go wrong. Trump will try to argue that it's better to stay the course because of X, Y and Z.
I don't think any of these arguments are compelling, which is why I favor Joe Biden. But I want to emphasize that I think Joe has a roughly 60% chance of winning. The people gave Trump the benefit of the doubt in the early weeks of this campaign and they still might if the mood of the country is returned to relative stability. Trump winning is not far-fetched.
III. The Forecast.
We start, as always with the 2016 electoral map. Trump won 306 votes, Hillary 232. I believe that a Biden should win back Pennsylvania (20 votes) and Michigan (16). That leave him with 268 electoral votes, two shy of enough to win.
Biden needs to win one more state. His best options are: Wisconsin, Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia, in roughly that order. (He also could win Nebraska's 2nd congressional district but a 269 to 269 tie likely results in the House Re-electing Trump. If you want to go wild with political nerd fantasies, you could end up with Trump being re-elected but a Democratic senate choosing Biden's running mate as Vice-President.
I think if the election were held today, Joe Biden would more likely than not win Wisconsin. I also favor him slightly in Arizona. That gives us this electoral college map:
So the official prediction is Biden winning 289 to 249.
Biden's polling is also pretty good in Florida but I will never feel confident abou that state's elections system.
IV. A Word About Running Mates.
Joe Biden has pledged to choose a woman running mate. That significantly shortens the list of possible running mates. Here are my thoughts on the main contenders and a quick word about where they might help or hurt the campaign.
1. Catherine Cortez Masto. She's less well-known but she checks a lot of boxes. She is from a traditional swing state, Nevada, and she is the next-door neighbor of another big prize this year, Arizona. She is Latina and a former state attorney general. Her husband is a retired secret service agent. Biden has to give her a close look. Biden supposedly recently told Harry Reid that Cortez-Masto is in his top three choices. I think she should be his first choice.
2. Amy Klobuchar. She was my pick all along for president and I think that Biden is comfortable with her. She would be a safe pick but not an inspiring one. Like Tim Kaine in 2016, she takes her home state off the map. And she has some natural crossover appeal in Wisconsin- a lot of WI gets its local news from the Twin Cities and she knows how to campaign in that part of the country.
3. Kamala Harris. Has a lot of fans among mainstream Democrats on social media but didn't exactly run a great presidential campaign. She should have been able to raise more money. But she has good experience as the California attorney general, although the Left will hold some of that against her. It's hard to say she particularly helps in any specific swing state.
4. Tammy Baldwin. The party who wins Wisconsin probably wins the White House in 2020. Putting their senior senator on the ticket is an obvious option and one that I think the party would be pleased with. Senator Baldwin is a lesbian. She is not married, and I continue to believe that is a handicap for a prospective Veep. We want to see that picture of the two happy couples at the convention when the confetti falls down. Although the image of Joe Biden waving with three women would be a new wrinkle on that one.
She's a contender because her politics align with Biden'ts and she represents a plumb prize. It would be political malpractice not to consider her.
5. Stacey Abrams. She is single and she has never won anything bigger than a state representative's race. She did rise to be speaker of that body, which is a significant political achievement and speaks to her skill as a consensus builder. In 2018, she came within a whisker of being elected Governor of Georgia, but that whisker is probably going to cost her a serious shot at the Vice-Presidency too. I think Biden will give her a long look and maybe he will pull the trigger. But under the current conditions, I think he will want to pick someone who has a more substantive resume.
6. Elizabeth Warren. I think this one is DOA. It might play well as a sop to the left, but it would cost a senate seat for at least Biden's first 100 days. She's also old. And as I said throughout the primary, I believe the controversy about her Native American ancestry is a softball for Donald Trump to pounce on. I do not think it will happen. And just for the record, she doesn't help in any swing states, at all.
7. Val Demmings. This would be a reach. Representative Demmings is a former chief of police for Orlando, Florida. That's a big job and would make her an interesting pick but I don't think Biden is going with someone who is in just her second term in the House of Representatives. Being from Florida makes her worth a look, but I think this pick hurts him on the left more than it helps him in the middle.
8. Gretchen Whitmer. (Edited to add this one after reader feedback.)
Gretchen Whitmer is an appealing choice because she is the governor of one of the most important swing states and has done a reasonably good job of managing the COVID-19 outbreak. But she has only been governor for 15 months and putting her on the ticket means taking her away from her very important day job while the virus is still running rampant. I don't think that Biden will have confidence in her to be ready from day one.
V. Other Forecasts.
As I update this forecast, I'll try to compare where I stand relative to other projections. Nate Silver has yet to release his general election forecast, but there are several other credible models out there so here is the first comparison:
1. Spider Stumbled: Biden 289, Trump 249.
2. JHK Forecasts. This site uses methodology similar to Nate Silver. At the moment their average result is pretty close to mine-299 to 239. But they break down the probability of every state's result. If you award every state to the candidate who wins each state at least 50.0001% of the time, then the result is Biden 318, Trump 220. (This would mean Biden winning Florida, which they give a 50.3% chance of happening, so basically a toss-up.)
They also run simulations, which allows them to express the prediction in terms of how often Biden wins in these simulations. As weeks and months go by, it will be interesting to compare their percentage to Nate Silver's forecast. For now, JHK has Biden winning 60.4% of the time.
3. Predictit. If you award the electoral votes in each state the result is: Biden 289, Trump 234, Toss-up 15. (North Carolina is a 50/50 proposition.)
4. 270toWin.com. I really like this site and have been following them since 2004. They have a broad definition of toss-up, which is probably accurate this far out from the election. Their current tally is Biden 232, Trump 204, Toss-up 102. (The consider PA and MI to be toss-ups now.)
5. Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball. Prof. Sabato also has PA as a toss-up but gives Michigan to Biden and Florida to Trump. Biden 248, Trump 233, Toss-up 57.
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