I last predicted the outcome of the 2020 presidential election seven weeks ago. Joe Biden remains the favorite, and by a wider margin than my last post. But there are 149 days until the election and a lot can go wrong.
The country is one week into a nationwide response to the horrific murder of George Floyd by Minneapolis police. The violence and property damage of the early nights seems to have crested, but we do not know how long these actions will last or what the full scale of the government's response will be. We also don't know if these events will lead to a major resurgence of COVID-19 cases. (Personally it seems likely to me, but the scale is hard to predict.)
I. The Fundamentals.
The economy is in the toilet and the streets are on fire. Recent polling reflects these facts. The president is unpopular. More importantly he is incapable and uninterested in changing course. So Joe Biden is the favorite now.
II. The Variables.
A lot can happen in 21 weeks.
1. The Death Count. Seven weeks ago 38,664 Americans have died from COVID-19. Back then, I boldly predicted that "I think the death tally will be over 75,000 by election day." I also wrote that if the death count was "somehow under 60,000, [Trump] might be able to claim that with a straight face."
Today that number is 109,928. We're still losing close to 1,000 people a day. It seems inevitable that the cases and deaths will spike thanks to these protests, some of which were held in the cities with the biggest outbreaks in the world. Trump's response will almost certainly be to blame any resurgence or even continued climb in the death count on the protests.
2. The Democratic Ticket. We still don't know who Biden will pick as his running mate but the field is definitely more narrow than it was last time I wrote. (See a more detailed take below.)
3. October Surprises. Tara Reade's allegations have seem to have come and gone in terms of political potency. It has now been established that she lied under oath about having a college degree. When this was exposed she doubled down on that lie and her attorney stopped representing her. This has done enough damage to her credibility that I do not think she will be used against him, even by surrogate groups.
The Republicans have tried to make some hay out of a made-up controversy called "Obamagate" and they will certainly imply that Hunter Biden engaged in something nefarious in Ukraine. But this is all weak sauce. Joe Biden is a popular person in Washington and for the moment it looks like he won't have to worry about losing the election because of a scandal.
III. The Forecast.
My previous Electoral Map gave Biden 289 Electoral Votes and Trump 249 EVs. That meant Biden holding every Hillary state plus winning PA, MI, WI and Arizona. I still believe he will win all of those states. And it's possible that the election will end up right there, because flipping any other state will require Biden to make a pretty significant improvement over Hillary's performance. But the polling has been good for Biden and I now thing that Biden is more likely than Trump to win these additional contests:
1. Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District.
2. Florida
3. North Carolina.
I want to emphasize that I think all 3 of these races will be very close.
I am also moving Ohio from likely Republican to Lean Republican. I gave some thought to doing the same with Texas, but I can not pull that trigger yet.
I am also moving Michigan from likely Biden to safe Dem. (The most recent poll has Biden up there by 12 points. I don't think he will win by that much but I think it's unlikely he will lose there.)
So here is the new map:
The new official prediction is Biden winning 334 to 204.
IV. A Word About Running Mates.
There has been a lot of change here. My previous first choice was Catherine Cortez-Masto. She took herself out of the running. My previous second choice was Amy Klobuchar. The events in Minnesota have effectively taken her out of the running. I suspected that she was Biden's first preference but I don't think he will take the risk of Trump using the Minneapolis police department against him. So here are the remaining contenders:.
1. Kamala Harris. (#3 last time)The betting markets like her. And she's an obvious contender. She checks a lot of boxes and I think Biden likes her. I think she is in many ways the safe pick-she won't alienate anyone and she has the right resume. I think that makes her most likely. But I also think she's somewhat uninspiring and I do think that Biden will ultimately make a personal choice. He wants someone that he believes is ready to take over if needed and that will align with his core values. I believe Harris does that.
If Harr is not the pick, it will be because someone else impressed Biden on a personal level, during the vetting process. I think he believes his friendship with Obama was an important part of what made that administration hum. He will look for something similar in his running mate.
2. Val Demings. (#7). Recent events have propelled her up these rankings. Her 20 year experience as a big city cop will be isolation against the inevitable claim that Democrats are anti-police. And every little bit helps in Florida. But she's in only her 2nd term in the house. It's not quite a "safe" pick but it's not hard for me to imagine Biden clicking with her during the interview process and going for it.
3. Tammy Baldwin (#4). Wisconsin is very important.
4. Tammy Duckworth. (Unranked.) Biden has to give her a long look. She is a woman of color and a decorated veteran. She is also a dull public speaker but I think she can impress Biden with her story and their policy alignment.
5. Susan Rice (Unranked) She's never won an election. That is a huge minus. But I think Joe Biden really likes her and will give her every consideration. Picking her will kick the "Benghazi" nonsense back into gear, but I don't think that's a deal-breaker.
6. Gretchen Whitmer. (#8) I still think her resume is light but Biden has to consider her and being governor of the state that Trump won by the smallest margin is a big point in her favor.
7. Keisha Lance-Bottoms. (Unranked) The mayor of Atlanta has done great work lately and should be given every consideration. But she is a long shot.
9. Elizabeth Warren. (#6) I still think this is very unlikely but she has plenty of fans.
10. Stacey Abrams. (#5). I can't see picking a state legislator in this environment. It's too much of a stretch.
V. Other Forecasts.
As I update this forecast, I'll try to compare where I stand relative to other projections. Nate Silver has yet to release his general election forecast, but there are several other credible models out there so here is the first comparison:
1. Spider Stumbled: Biden 334, Trump 234. (Up from Biden 289, Trump 249.) I will add that I think Biden's win probability is about 70% now.
2. JHK Forecasts. Their median result is Biden 315, Trump 233. (Up from 299 to 239).
If you award every state to the candidate who wins each state at least 50.0001% of the time, then the result is Biden 334, Trump 234 up from (Biden 318, Trump 220.) (This would mean Biden winning Florida, which they give a 50.3% chance of happening, so basically a toss-up.)
They also run simulations, JHK has Biden winning 67.8% of the time. (Up from 60.4% when I last published.)
3. Predictit. If you award the electoral votes in each state the result is: Biden 334, Trump 234 up from Biden 289, Trump 234, Toss-up 15. (North Carolina was the toss-up last time.) Their national betting line is Biden 54 cents, Trump 46 cents.
4. 270toWin.com. I really like this site and have been following them since 2004. They have a broad definition of toss-up, which is probably accurate this far out from the election. Their current tally is Biden 232, Trump 204, Toss-up 102. This is unchanged from last time. (They obviously have a broad definition of toss-up.
5. Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball. Prof. Sabato's forecast is unchanged from last time: Biden 248, Trump 233, Toss-up 57.
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