It's been less than a week since I update my election forecast and
I will not make any changes today. My prediction stands at Biden 334, Trump
204. I am writing today to discuss a range of scenarios and who certain
states might determine the outcome or the magnitude of the outcome. I
will also write a little bit about Biden's Vice-Presidential options because
yesterday someone leaked his short list of six contenders.
I. The Veep
Shortlist.
Yesterday someone leaked to the
Associated Press that Joe Biden was beginning a second round of vetting for six
potential running mates. Here is the list ranked by my perception of how
likely they are to be the running mate:
1. Senator Kamala Harris
(1st on my previous ranking). He likes her and I don't think she
completely alienates anyone important. She is the safest pick on this short
list and I think Biden is a fundamentally safe kind of guy. I'd say she's
got a 50% of being the pick.
2. Ambassador Susan Rice
(5th on my previous ranking). I think that if he could pick anyone
without regard to politics, he would pick her. But she's never ran in an
election and she comes with some baked-in right wing talking points about
Benghazi. But I think she is the best potential president on this list.
And I know that means a lot to Biden. I sure hope it does anyway. I'm
going to say she's got a 25% chance.
Fun Fact: Her son was
recently the president of the college Republicans at Stanford University.
3. Representative Val Demings.
(2nd on my previous ranking) I think that Biden knows the policing issue
is on his side right now but that the Republicans will try to present him as an
enemy of the police. Having a career police officer on the ticket is a pretty
good shield there. And she's from Florida. She's never held statewide office
but her district is pretty competitive and every vote counts in Florida. I'll
give her a 15% chance.
If you're good at math you know
that the remaining ladies are long shots.
4. Governor Michele Lujan
Grisham (Unranked) I don't know why I left her off the last list.
She's a perfectly plausible candidate from a state that might be
competitive. But she hasn't been a governor for very long, so I think
she's a long shot. I'll give her a 5% chance.
5. Mayor Keisha Lance Bottom
(7th on my previous ranking). Events can happen pretty quickly. She
defused the threat of violence during the first round of protests pretty well.
Then last night two Atlanta police shot and killed a man in the back as he ran
away after a physical confrontation with them. Police were called to the
scene because of a report that someone was asleep in a car parked in the
Wendy's parking lot.
None of this is her fault but
my point is that Atlanta is a volatile situation and her resume is thing to
begin with. I don't like her chances. I'll give her a 2% chance.
6. Senator Elizabeth Warren
(9th on my previous ranking) I do not think that Biden has to pick a
woman of color. But if this short list is accurate picking the only white woman
on it is...impolitic.
She also has 3 big strikes
against her-she is old, she is from an extremely safe state and she would
either cost him a senate seat or force the Democratic legislature to pass a law
just to accommodate her ambition. Again...impolitic.
She does have a lot of
supporters. But I think her supporters are going to be reliable Biden votes on
November third anyway. More importantly, at her age, her time is better spent
getting stuff done in the senate than waiting for Joe Biden to die. I give her
a 2% chance.
For those of you who are really
good at math-I have left 1% of wiggle room. If this second round of vetting
raises problems for one of the contenders, I think Biden might give a second
look to Tammy Baldwin, Tammy Duckworth or Gretchen Whitmer.
II. The Electoral College
Taxonomy.
A. The Safe States.
Biden does not need to worry
about: Washington DC, Delaware, Hawaii, California, Massachusetts,
Maryland, Vermont, New York, Illinois, Washington, Rhode Island, Connecticut,
Oregon, New Jersey, or New Mexico. Colorado, Virginia and New Mexico
would only become competitive in a scenario where Biden is losing badly.
Add those states up and Biden starts with 209 Electoral Votes.
B. A Little Defense.
The good thing about losing
most of the close states is you don't have play much defense in the next cycle.
There are only 4 states that Hillary Clinton won that Joe Biden will have to
campaign in:
1. Nevada (6 Electoral Votes,
Hillary won by 2.42%)
The state is trending blue but
still purple enough that Biden will have to campaign there.
2. Minnesota (10 Electoral
Votes, Hillary won bey 1.51%)
Trump made this shockingly
close last time. Right now, the George Floyd murder is redounding to Biden's
benefit but it would not surprise me if Trump makes his "Law and
Order" backlash play here. I can't imagine people in the Twin City suburbs
liked seeing a police precinct burn. Both campaigns will have to put some work
in here.
3. Maine (4EV, Hillary by
2.96%)
Maine gives out its EV by
congressional district so Hillary got a 3-1 split by winning in the first
district while losing the 2nd district by a wider margin. I think Trump will
end up spending more time here than Biden because it's probably his best pickup
opportunity. But Biden should not ignore it. If things go well he can win that
4th electoral vote. That is significant because of one scenario-if Biden wins
back Pennsylvania and Michigan but loses Wisconsin, he needs two more Electoral
votes-one way to get them is to win Nebraska's 2nd congressional district and
sweep Maine.
4. New Hampshire (4 EV
Hillary by 0.37%)
The only really close margin
that went the Dems way last time. This state is trending blue because of the
Boston suburbs and exurbs but Biden can't take this one for granted by any means.
We will probably see a lot of trips by the running mates to Northern New
England.
If Biden successfully defends
these states, he will get all of Hillary's 232 EVs. If he sweeps Maine, he
starts with 233.
C. The Must Win Backs.
It is very difficult for me to
imagine Joe Biden winning the presidency but losing Michigan. And if he doesn't
win Pennsylvania, he probably needs to win Florida.
1. Michigan (16 EV, Trump won
by 0.22%)
This was the closest state in
the whole union last time. Hillary barely campaigned there. Biden will avoid
that mistake and he will do better with the white working-class voters. He also
has a democratic governor on his side this time, who will probably be able to
make sure turnout in Detroit is higher than last time.
2. Pennsylvania (20 EV, Trump
by 0.72%)
Hillary did contest
Pennsylvania, as every candidate has done for 30 years. But she was the first
to lose it. Some of that is because Trump activated voters that usually stay
home and some of it was because Hillary just was not popular there. But you
know who is popular in Pennsylvania? Joe Biden.
If Biden runs the table of the
states we have discussed so far, he sits at 268 electoral votes. He needs to
get 2 move votes somewhere. Here is where the magic could happen.
D. The Tipping Two.
The most obvious candidates for
a tipping point state are Wisconsin and Arizona.
1. Wisconsin. (10 EVs, Trump
won by 0.77%)
This state was lost by
virtually the same margin as Pennsylvania. And unlike Pennsylvania, Hillary
didn't put much effort into winning there. She never set foot in the state
after losing the primary in June. But this state feels a little tougher
for Biden than Pennsylvania. The state is redder than MI or PA and even in the
2018 Blue wave, they just barely elected a Democratic governor over the
objectively terrible Scott Walker.
This one will be contested down
to the wire.
2. Arizona (11 EVs, Trump won
by 3.5%)
This state has genuinely
shifted to the left. Last time it was a reach for Hillary and she didn't
campaign there much. But the odds makers give Biden about a 60% chance of
winning there this time. The Democrats have a terrific senate candidate and the
state has been helped by some people retiring/relocating from California and
some northern states.
Winning either of these states
should put Biden over the top. Keeping the other states we've mentioned and
winning one of these two gets him to 278 or 279. Winning both gets him to
289.
E. The Reconstruction
Projects.
Barack Obama won Florida twice
and North Carolina once. Winning either of them this time would provide Biden
with an insurance policy against losing someplace like MN or both New Hampshire
and Maine.
1. Florida (29 EVs, Trump won
by 1.19%)
Florida will always be the
stuff of nightmares for anyone who remembers the 2000 debacle. But Biden has
been polling well there and he has to engage Trump there, if only to force
Trump to spend time and money in his new nominal home state that he can't spend
up north. My hunch is Biden wins here by a point or so.
2. North Carolina (15 EVs,
Trump won by 3.66%)
In 2008 Obama won this state by
0.32%. Romney won it in 2012 by just over 2 points. If the election is really
close, Biden probably won't contest this state very hard. Right now, the polls
suggest that Biden should win with a little breathing room. North Carolina is
the perfect place to run up the lead while helping a good senate candidate and
continuing the trend of turning the southern states blue, one at a time.
3. Nebraska's 2nd Congressional
District (1 EV, Trump won by 2%)
This was the rare jurisdiction
where Donald Trump did worse than Mitt Romney. After Obama won the district by
one percent in 2008, the Nebraska legislature redrew the map to make sure it
leaned to the right. Romney won by 7 points but four years later Trump won by
just two.
Winning all of these contests
bring Biden up to my current predicted outcome-334 electoral votes.
F. The Reaches.
None of these states will be
the tipping point. But if Biden runs a good campaign, these states might be
competitive.
1. Georgia (16 EVs, Trump won
by 5.09%)
Could be close but if Trump
runs a decent campaign or Biden a weak one, then it will stay red, probably by
2 or 3 points.
2. Ohio (18 EVs, Trump won by
8.07%)
I think this state is too far
gone but Biden has led in some recent polls.
3. Iowa (6 EVs Trump won by
9.41%)
Another state where Biden probably
has to improve by too much to win, but it’s possible in a blowout.
4. Texas (36 EVs, Trump won by
8.98%)
Texas made a huge shift to the
left in 2016. After Romney won there by 15.78 points, Hillary managed to cut
that almost in half. If the Democrats win there the electoral math for
the next few elections will shift. But if they spend a lot of time and money
there they will probably still lose.
I don't think we will see much
campaigning there. If Trump has to defend Texas, then he knows he is losing the
election. And Biden will be afraid of repeating Hillary's mistakes of
neglecting likely tipping point states.
If Biden somehow sweeps all of
the states we've discussed, he will cross the 400 Electoral Vote We are not
used to results like that. For 25 years every election has been a bit of
a mystery even as the polls closed. The last time a presidential candidate
racked up over 400 electoral votes was 1988. That's so long ago that it
was the first time Joe Biden ran for president.
III. Other Forecasts.
1. Spider Stumbled.
Holding steady with Biden 334, Trump 204. I think Biden is a 75%
favorite to win.
2. JHK Forecasts. They
give Joe Biden a 76.1% chance of winning. Their median result is
Biden 325, Trump 213. (Up from 315 to 233.) If you award every state to
the winner with a 50.00001% probability, you end up with an unchanged result
of Biden 334, Trump 204.
3. Predicit it: Their
betting line is Biden 58 cents, Trump 42 cents. That is up from 54/46. Once
again if you award every state to the candidate who is favored, however
slightly, you get an unchanged result of Biden 334, Trump 204.
4. 270towin.com Another
unchanged projection: Biden 232, Trump 204, Toss-up 102.
5. Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball:
Yet more static; Biden 248, Trump 233, Toss-up 57. It's worth
mentioning that Sabato thinks Trump will win Florida.
6. The Economist. The
Economist unveiled their own forecast this week and they are slightly more
bullish on Biden than any of the American forecasters. They give him an
84% chance of winning and a median result of Biden 335, Trump 213. If you
look at their categorizations, it's a bit more conservative-with Biden
292, Trump 186 and "Uncertain" 60. They have Ohio as
uncertain, along with NC, GA and AZ.
Still no forecast from Nate
Silver. But I think that is coming soon. His first 2016 forecast
was released on June 8th.
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