Thursday, November 12, 2015

Symmetrical Warfare: The GOP Race Enters Phase Two



The most substantive part of the debate.


Last night the GOP held its fourth debate of the 2016 cycle. Only eight candidates made the main stage, while four were relegated to the kiddie table and three candidates failed to qualify for either event. The pared down cast improved the show by allowing the plausible candidates to have more time.  Almost immediately I notice that the most sense was coming from the far ends of the stage, from the two candidates clinging for dear life to their right to be on that stage at all. So for this review of the state of the GOP race, I will evaluate the candidates by how they were paired up on stage.

1. The Outliers (Kasich and Paul).  Here is a sentence I never expected to write: I thought Rand Paul was the best candidate in that debate.  He obviously has decided that his only hope for relevance is to reignite some love for his watered down Libertarianism by shitting on the ridiculous neconservative fantasies that pass for policies among the serious candidate.  He also corrected Trump on a very stupid factual mistake related to free trade.

From the other end of the stage, John Kasich came thundering to the defense of reason and in opposition to the truly insane, unsustainable tax policies of his competitors. He was impolite and sensible, so not surprisingly he was booed by the crowd and roundly panned by the right wing media figures today.  At one time I thought Kasich might become the establishment candidate that the base could put up with if they became convinced that he was their best shot at carrying Ohio and taking the White House. That seems very unlikely now.

Neither Kasich nor Paul will be the Republican nominee next year. Paul has apparently decided to speak up for his ideological preferences and Kasich for pragmatism.  Paul will probably benefit from this choice and get a modest bump.  But Kasich is officially doomed.  If he keeps u this rationale nonsense he just might play his way out of what should be a very strong chance at becoming the Vice-Presidential nominee.

2. The Lamestream (Jeb! and Fiorina).
Sixty days ago I'm sure that both Jeb Bush and Carly Fiorina believed they were likely to become the nominee and probably thought they would more likely than not become the 45th President of the United States. It is quite obvious that this will not happen. Jeb is a terrible candidate who managed to finish dead last in microphone time for yet another debate.  When he did speak he was boring and way off-message.  He doubled-down on the invasion of Iraq for the 947th time and that did him no favors.

Someday Carly Fiorina will be an amusing piece of presidential campaign trivia. She vaulter herself from the kiddie table to the primetime debate with a well-rehearsed shtick as the anti-Hillary.  The base took a good look at her in this fall but she did not complete the sale.  She is playing out the string.

In some alternate reality, these candidates are not stuck in the 5th and 6th spot. But I don't see either of them moving up, barring a profound implosion by a couple of the heavyweights.

3.  The Finalists  (Rubio and Cruz).

Rubio and Cruz have run the most intelligent campaigns in this cycle.  They still have not come close to closing the polling gap with the nominal front-runners, but they have built steadily and they have not alienated anyone.  The establishment and the donor class are ready and even eager to support Rubio.  Cruz does very well among evangelicals and working class Trump voters. He is well positioned to take the votes from Cruz and or Trump should they fall from grace.

Six months from now, this race will probably be whittled down to these two men. Both are intelligent, ambitious and willing to fight. One of them is a sociopath.  But my money is on the other guy, even if he sometimes uses the wrong credit card in Las Vegas.

4.  The Cincinnati Bengals (Trump and Carson).

The weirdest part of the geometry in Milwaukee was that the center-most podiums felt the least relevant to the process.  Dr. Carson and Mr. Trump dominate the national and state-level polling.  They typically combine for a bare majority of the responses while every other candidate in the field is delighted to be at or near 10 percent. But nearly everyone expects an implosion for them once real voting happens.

Dr. Carson did not even try to look prepared. Most of his answers were the rambling word salads of a very bright man talking about a subject he knows nothing about.  Imagine a Supreme Court justice holding forth on quantum physics. It almost sounds serious, but when you parse it out, there's just nothing there.

Trump was his usual self but that really is beginning to wear a little bit thin.  Which does not mean he will slide in the polls.  A certain kind of voter just loves his shtick. But part of his appeal is the arrogant confidence that will be destroyed by coming in third in Iowa or New Hampshire.  If he has a setback like that, he'll probably leave the field with a lot of huffing and puffing about how great he did very early next year.

The Cincinnati Bengals have been one of the better teams in the AFC over the past half-decade.  Since Marvin Lewis became their head coach they have won 55% o their games and made the playoffs six times. But they lost their first playoff game all six times.  This year they are undefeated at 8-0 but no one can quite take them seriously given their track record  And that's how you have to feel about the candidacy of Trump and Carson.  They are crushing the competition but it's hard to shake the doubts that they will fold when the campaign begins in earnest.

The Updated Forecast

There is not a lot of movement in this one.  Rubio inches up slightly and Cruz improves his odds form 8 to 1 to about 6 to 1. Carson, Trump and Bush slip slightly and I've officially given up on Fiorina's chances. If she was going to win the nomination she would have built on the momentum she had coming out of the first debate. She has not. 

 There are 4 candidates who will have the option of going beyond the early states.  But I think Trump and or Carson may tire of this game by then. I am hoping we get a middle stage of the primaries with Rubio and Cruz having to deal with Trump on a stage that only has three podiums.  But eventually this will come down to a fight between the establishment choice of Rubio against the Tea Party's favorite Cruz. That will be tough emotional waters for me because I loathe Ted Cruz.  But I fear Marco Rubio. 


Candidate Pre 1st debate Post 1st Debate Pre 2nd Debate Pre 3rd Debate Post 3rd Debate Post 4th Debate Change
Rubio 23 28 26 46 53 54 1
Trump 2 1 8 12 18 17 -1
Cruz 1 1 2 10 12 17 5
Carson 0 0 3 5 7 6 -1
Bush  34 31 24 17 3 2 -1
Huckabee 3 3 1 1 1 1 0
Santorum 1 1 1 1 1 1 0
Kasich 1 2 6 3 2 1 -1
The Field 1 1 3 3 2 1 -1
Paul 2 1 1 0 0 0 0
Christie 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jindal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Fiorina 0 2 3 2 1 0 -1
Graham 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pataki 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Gilmore 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Walker 32 29 22 -- -- -- --
Perry 0 0 -- -- -- --


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