The Field is Steady but the Math is Uncertain (Updated GOP forecast)

Not going to happen, except when it might.

I. Upate on Our Taxonomy of Candidates.

In my previous post on the GOP field I created a new taxonomy for the candidates. This taxonomy included four categories: Outsiders, Serious, Niche and Charity. My thesis was that the traditional "tiers" model could not accurately capture the dynamics of the 2016 GOP primary. The Outsider candidates (Trump, Carson and Fiorina) were dominating the polling but nearly everyone still believe the nominee would be a more conventional candidate.  Two weeks and one debate later, the polling number of the Outsider candidates remain strong but I'm still skeptical of their chance to be nominated.

At the start of this process I thought there were three candidates (Walker, Rubio and Bush) who had roughly equal chances at being the nominee. Since then Walker has dropped out and Bush has imploded. I now believe that Marco Rubio is a better than even money bet to win the nomination. The bookmakers at Paddy Power agree that he's the heavy favorite but not by as much as I do.  (The have him as a 2.37 to 1 shot, which translates into a 30% chance of being the nominee.  I have him at 52%.)

Before I write about my updated handicap, I want to look at the recent polls for this nomination process.  In the earlier post, I added up the Real Clear politics averages of the candidates in each of my categories.  There has been almost no movement among these groups in this time.  The Outsiders are a majority, the Serious Candidates are fighting over 1/4 of the voters and the rest of the field is right around 10 percent.  Whoever gets the nomination will get them by convincing undecided voters or persuading votes away from the Outsider candidates.

Category	Oct. 18	Nov. 1st
Outsiders	54.3	54.8
Serious	26	25.4
Niche	10	8
Charity	1.1	1.6

II. Individual Candidates

Two big themes emerged in the post-debate coverage. The first was that Marco Rubio crushed Jeb Bush in a head to head confrontation over his voting record. The second was that the candidates complained about the toughness of the questions. The questions were pretty tough, but no more than than during the first two debates on Fox News and CNN.  What was different this time was that the moderators did a terrible job of controlling the candidates. We saw a lot of interruptions and cross-talk, which of course is how CNBC sounds during most of its broadcast day. It made for bad television and gave the GOP an excuse to whine about the event.  I think this whining may bounce back on them as they came out of the hulabaloo looking like a bunch of men who promise to thrash ISIS but are incapable of withstanding CNBC.  

We also saw another predictable theme with regards to the front-runner. After each of the first three Republican debates, the punditry has been quick to declare a setback for Donald Trump. After the first two, his numbers slipped slightly for about a week and then rebounded. I expect that pattern to repeat this time.  But I think Trump did fine. The moderators for this debate, unlike their predecessors at other networks, didn't give him an excessive amount of questions and he faded into the background a little. But he didn't need to dominate the conversation. He just needed to be himself. And he was, especially during a rousing final speech about how he saved us all from the event being 30 minutes longer than it was. (If future generations are reading this blog post on a recovered Internet cache, just trust me on this.  The front runner got rousing applause by bragging about keeping the event short.)

But they were right about Jeb Bush. He got crushed.  I have come to the conclusion that he is a lousy candidate and that people just don't like him. The conventional wisdom at the start of this process was that Jeb would have to work hard to overcome the stigma of his name.  I didn't really buy that because the Republican base never really blamed Bush for all the horrific things his presidency led to. I thought Jeb could bill himself as the smarter, wonkier version of his older brother. But he's not even getting that chance. People don't like him, which probably explains why he lost his first crack at becoming Governor of Florida.  He still has a lot of institutional support, so I'm not completely writing him off.  But it is hard to imagine the narrative he would corral to get back into this race. When John McCain was faltering in the polls we all knew he had an extremely remarkable biography to fall back on.  Jeb's biography is remarkable but not for reasons that could ever make him credible as a plucky outsider.  He is no maverick and he probably needs to get used to living with the fact that his idiot brother achieved a pinnacle that he will never reach.

In my original forecast, I gave Bush, Rubio and Walker a combined 89% of being the nominee.  I know have Rubio at 52, Bush at 3 and Walker has left the race. I gave Trump a 2% chance and Carson and Fiorina none at all. Today I have them with a combined 31% chance. So they have gained nearly all of the probability lost by my three original front-runners. 

The only other significant movement has been the emergence of Ted Cruz.  Given just 1% in my first forecast, I now have him at a solid 12%. He has played the game well. His fund raising is strong and he has positioned himself to pick up a lot of Trump/Carson voters should one or both of them implode sometime between now and Super Tuesday.  

Here's the Updated Forecast:

Candidate	Pre 1st debate	Post 1st Debate	Pre 2nd Debate	Pre 3rd Debate	Post 3rd Debate	Change
Trump	2	1	8	12	18	6
Bush	34	31	24	17	3	-14
Walker	32	29	22	--	--	--
Rubio	23	28	26	46	53	7
Huckabee	3	3	1	1	1	0
Santorum	1	1	1	1	1	0
Paul	2	1	1	0	0	0
Cruz	1	1	2	10	12	2
Kasich	1	2	6	3	2	-1
Carson	0	0	3	5	7	2
Christie	0	0	0	0	0	0
Jindal	0	0	0	0	0	0
Fiorina	0	2	3	2	1	-1
Graham	0	0	0	0	0	0
Perry	0	0		--	--	--
Pataki	0	0	0	0	0	0
Gilmore	0	0	0	0	0	0
The Field	1	1	3	3	2	-1

III. Process and Very Premature Delgate Math

The first delegates will be determined four months from tonight in Iowa.  The field has been pretty stable up until now but I'm sure we will see a flurry of changes as that date draws near.  Some of the minor players might drop out, although it's hard to say who.  Christie and Paul should throw the towel in but they both seem too stubborn to do so. I think Paul finds value in espousing his vaguely libertarian ideals in these forums.  All of the field seems to enjoy the attention. Even absurd long shots like Jindal and Pataki have access to national microphones that will be gone forever once they drop out. 

Jeb is too well-heeled and connected to drop out soon. He probably believes that he can weather this storm and that most people will eventually come to their senses on Trump and Carson. But he also seems weary of the process. He might drop out before Iowa, but only if he thinks the nomination is going to be won by someone he respects. I think that's a short list. Kasich for sure and presumably Rubio too. The most likely outcome is that he hangs around through the early states and hopes to swoop up some delegates on Super Tuesday.

Individual Contests.

1. IOWA: MOST LIKELY WINNER; BEN CARSON.  

Iowa seems likely to be won by either Trump or Carson.  I think Carson might benefit from the same dynamic that helped Obama in 2008. Iowans are nice people and I know that Iowa takes some pride in the role it played in electing the first black president. I think that pride has rubbed off on the Republicans there and unless Carson says something disqualifying or the competition succeeds in portraying him as a fraudster for selling snake oil supplelments and then lying about it, he will be in a strong position there. 

Rubio and Cruz should battle for third place but this contest has previously been won by two of our long shot candidates-Rick Santorum and Mike Huckabee. I think some odd ball like that will get a surprising third place or a very strong 4th. That person will be able to survive New Hampshire.

2. NEW HAMPSHIRE MOST LIKELY WINNER; DONALD TRUMP:  

Trump is dominating the polls here. NH has a long history of shunning the Iowa winner so it might be in Trump's best interest to lose close in IA, then sweep up in NH.  In fact, that seems likely. Bush, Kasich, Rubio, Christie will all be vying or 2nd place. If Kasich doesn't get that, he'll probably drop out and wait for his phone to ring in July. If Christie finishes lower than 4th, he will probably drop out too.

3. SOUTH CAROLINA:  MOST LIKELY WINNER: DONALD TRUMP

South Carolina votes on February 20th, Nevada on February 23rd.  I think the field will split after NH with most candidates focusing on one of these states and ignoring the others.  Rubio and Cruz will try for NV, Trump, Carson and Bush for SC.  The hangers on will each take a shot somewhere but they won't have much chance of medaling in either place.  

The most interesting scenario is if Trump manages to wins South Carolina.  His outer boro obnoxiosness should not play in the south, but I think it will play to this crowd. He is currently leading the polls there by 13 points and I think he will win there next February. That will begin to push Carson to the margins.  

4. NEVADA:  TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Nevada could be won by Rubio, Cruz or Trump.  If Carson has pulled the upset in SC, then this race could pull him back into the lead ahead of Super Tuesday. There has only been one published poll of this race in he last 90 days.  Trump led comfortably but I suspect some of the lower-tier candidates will try to ramp up a presence there in December and January.  

DISCLAIMER:  The picture beyond these early states is very murky.  I'm going to go through the rest of the states in order to create a record of my predictions, but the truth is, if Kasich or Bush pulls an upset in NH, the rest of my predictions will look foolish. The underlying premise of everything else is that Trump, Carson, Rubio and Cruz all come out of the first 4 contests with at least some delegate and one or more strong performances in an early state.

5. SUPER TUESDAY:  12 States Voting on March 1st, 2016.

Twelve states vote on March 1st. The states are from all over the map but more than 2/3 of the available delegates come from Southern states. (And that's with counting Oklahoma as a Midwestern state, although its politics are a lot more like the former Confederate states than the great plains.)

Southern: 408 delegates from Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia

Western: 57 delegates from Alaska, Wyoming

Northeastern: 58 delegates from Massachusetts, Vermont

Midwestern:  81 delegates from  Minnesota, Oklahoma, 

By this point, Trump will either have burned out, dropped out in a fit of pique or gained national credibility.  I suspect the latter is most likely but Cruz and Rubio will be well-positioned to get a lot of delegates in the Southern and Western States. 

I suspect after these contests that Rubio, Trump and Cruz will all have enough delegates to seem like plausible candidates. Carson also could be viable then.  Bush, Kasich and Fiorina will have needed one or two big upsets to still be around.  Santorum, Huckabee and Jindal will be playing out the string but why not hang around for 4 more days

6. MARCH 5th: Old Home Saturday.  Caucuses in Maine, Kansas and Kentucky. Primary in LA.

By now we will be playing for pride.  Every contest before March 15th must award its delegates proportionally.  Jindal and Paul will be hoping for home state wins to corral some delegates.  That will be the last we hear from them. And it's hard to imagine Maine and Kansas resolving much.

7. MARCH 8th; The Last Proportional States; Idaho, Hawaii, Michigan and Mississippi.

Cruz could win Idaho and Mississippi, Trump should win Michigan and Rubio will probably compete in all Four States.

8. MARCH 15th: The Field Will Thin.

With apologies to Puerto Rico (March 13th), the nomination very well may be decided on the first day of Winner Takes All Contests. Ohio, Illinois, Missouri, Florida and North Carolina all go to the polls.  If Rubio holds home court in Florida, those 99 delegates will probably get him at or near the lead in the delegate count.  Trump will need to win Ohio and Illinois, Cruz will be banking on wins in NC and MO.  If Rubio wins any of those other states, he will have the delegate lead. 

If Kasich has hung on to this point, he could throw the math off by winning Ohio's 66 delegates. But this seems increasingly unlikely.  He may stay in the race at that point only if he thinks he can keep Trump from getting those delegates.

I know I've been discounting Carson through all of these predictions.  I guess I just don't see him having the wherewithal for a long political fight.  I know Cruz and Rubio have that.  Unless one of them is shut out on March 15th, they will soldier on to the next contests.  Trump will probably be neck and neck with Rubio for the most delegates, and ready to go scorched earth on the young Senators.

9.  The Rest of the Races: 

March 22nd: I think Rubio will win UT because he is far and away the most polite candidate of the three left standing.  Arizona could be a sprawling three way race. 

April 5th: Wisconsin.  This will be 2 weeks where Scott Walker wishes he didn't give up so easily. 42 delegates to either Trump or Rubio

April 19th: New York.  If Trump is still running, he wins. If not, it's Rubio's.  Cruz could be on life support after this race.

April 26th: Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island.  So THIS is where the establishment has stashed the sane states. That's 172 delegates and I think Rubio does well in all of those states. Cruz will probably have to concentrate in MD and PA. If he wins those 2, then the race is still too close to call.  

The Delagate Math So Far:

I don't know the exact mechanics for distributing delegates int he proportional states. But I just tried some very crude back of the envelop math on how the delegate counts will look after April 26th.  What I have is a very competitive three way race.   Here's the very inaccurate projection:

Trump      694

Rubio        534

Cruz          520

Carson        58

Paul             21

Jindal          15

Bush             3

Huckabee     2

Santorum     1

I have Kasich at 0 but that is likely to be off by a lot if he does better than expected in the early states and is able to win all 66 delegates by squeaking out a win in his home state of Ohio.  He may have an incentive to stay in if the math is this close, because those 66 delegates might be the difference between getting the needed majority and not.  And the VP Slot is not too much to ask in that scenario.

10.  What the Heck: Why Stop Being Wrong Now?.

I was going to write some boring paragraph about the rest of the races being too early to call but let's face it, this blog is just for fun and almost certain to be wrong.  So no half-measures tonight.  Here's how the rest of the races will go, with the winner's haul of delegates in parenthesis. 

May 3rd

Indiana  Rubio (57)

May 10th: This could be Cruz' last stand. He will need a win that day but I don't think he'll get one.)

Nebraska Turmp (36)

West Virginia Trump (34)  

May  17th  Oregon Rubio (28)

June    7th  Each of the 3 candidates could get a win here but only 2 of them can win more than one race. If Trump and Rubio both go all in for California, Cruz would be wise to concentrate on the other states and hope to finish the day in 2nd place. More likely they will all fight for CA and Rubio will win.

California Rubio (172)

Montana Cruz (27)

New Jersey Trump (52)

New Mexico Rubio (24)

South Dakota Trump (29)

June 14th:

District of Columbia  Rubio (19)

The Dates to be Determined.

Obviously the timing and spread of these contests will affect who wins where. But I'm assuming none of these will go before March 16th and I'm taking my best guess at who will win. 

North Dakota  Cruz (28)

Colorado Rubio (37)

Washington Rubio (44)

America Samoa Rubio (9)

Guam:  Cruz (9)

N. Marianas Trump (9)

Virgin Islands Trump (9)

10.  Final Delegate Math (A Political Nerd's Dream Come True)

Rubio:  933     37.8%

Trump: 853     34.5%

Cruz:    584     23.6%

Others: 100       4.1%

A brokered convention is too good to be true.  If the math begins to shape up this way the party would put enormous pressure on Cruz to drop out and let Rubio vanquish Trump mano e mano. But Cruz has big ambitions and he won't come cheap.  He also probably prefers Trump to Rubio if only because he's more likely to inherit Trumps supporters in 2020 should he not stick Trump in the back. So next July in Cleveland might be the first brokered convention of my lifetime, but I know there are powerful forces dedicated to preventing that.  I'll try to update my Math as we get past the early states and have real voting data to work with.

IV. FINAL THOUGHTS

We could get through the four February contests with eight candidates who still believe they can be the nominee.  The early states are not important because of the delegates they allocate. They are important because the media ignores and the donors stop supporting the candidates who do poorly there.  This year's Republican field is twice the size of a typical nominating process which means that the votes will be distributed across many more candidates than usual. In 2012 John Huntsman dropped out after only getting 17 percent in New Hampshire.  Any candidate other than Trump would be delighted with that number this time around.  I can foresee five or even six candidates vying for double digits there, and a couple other candidates might do well in Iowa and/or South Carolina.  Even little Bobby Jindal has reason for optimism this week after an Iowa poll put him at a whopping six percent.

Iowa's most likely outcome is Carson first, Trump second and Cruz third. If Huckabee and Jindal break double digits there, they will soldier on to South Carolina.  Trump, Carson, Rubio and Cruz will all set their sites on winning new Hampshire.  Kasich, Bush Christie and Paul will all be hoping to edge out the others to finish a strong fifth.  That's ten candidates who will choose between SC and NV to get one more respectable finish.   Lindsay Graham will have to choose between accepting reality or hoping to play spoiler with a 4th place finish in his home state.

Then it will come down to personality.  I can see Kasich getting discouraged, maybe Huckabee and Christie too. Bush might succumb to reality if he hasn't yet medaled. Pataki and Santorum (barring another Iowa miracle for him) will pack it up. But the other seven will probably move on to Super Tuesday if only for lack of something better to do. And only when the race moves to winner take all contests will we know who the real contenders are.  Trump, Rubio and Cruz will almost certainly still be standing.  Carson could be out by then, but he also could be the front-runner.  Bush, and Crhistie will probably be gone by then. Paul, Jindal and Kasich might be tempted to try to steal their home state contests to influence the process in the summer.  Or they might clear the field to prevent the Trumptacolypse.